Euro 2024 Day 11 Cheat Sheet: Best tips and Euros podcast as Group B concludes

• Group B concludes on Monday with Spain guaranteed top spot

• Close clash anticipated between Croatia and Italy

• Calafiori fancied for a card as Azzurri may lose heads

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Group B Permutations

Spain are through to the Round of 16 as Group B winners.

Monday's opponents Albania need to win to have any realistic chance of qualifying to the next stage. Should they win, and Italy lose to Croatia, then Albania will finish second in the group if they have a better goal difference than Croatia. They will finish third in the group on four points if they beat Spain and Italy avoid defeat to Croatia.

A draw for Albania will see them finish no higher than third with just two points, and that is likely to see them eliminated from the tournament.

Italy will qualify for the Round of 16 as Group B runners-up if they avoid defeat to Croatia. Should Croatia beat Italy then they will finish as runners-up if Albania fail to beat Spain. Croatia can also finish as runners-up if they and Albania both win and Croatia have a better overall goal difference.

Italy are 3/101.30 to finish as Group B runners-up, with Croatia at 13/53.60 and Albania the rank outsiders at 25/126.00.

Albania v Spain (20:00)

Ferran Torres to steer La Roja to third group stage win

Jamie Kemp: "With top spot in Group B already clinched - following one of the best pound-for-pound performances of EURO 2024 so far - Spain now find themselves in the ideal position of being able to cool the jets a little in their third game. Not performance-wise, of course, but at least in terms of being able to rest some of their key players.

"Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have been featured parts of Spain's two victories so far, but you'd expect at least one of them to sit this game out. Along with being 21 and 16 respectively, their games both rely on actions done in dynamic fashion, and not to mention plenty of pressing without the ball. Risking one or both here with qualification already sealed doesn't seem the smartest call.

"Albania have the necessity to get a result to have any chance of going through, but the problem for them is Spain's way of playing shouldn't be altered too much by making rotations. The 4-3-3 system will stay intact, Spain will still press from the front, and they'll look to maintain a direct style of attacking even if they end up with the lion's share of possession. In that fashion, they racked up 20 shots and nine on target versus Italy, while only giving up 0.16 xG themselves.

"In terms of the likely rotations to occur, Ferran Torres is the only winger who's been substituted on in the previous two games. He's been a trusted player across multiple regimes for Spain, and just the type of player they'll look to bring in to maintain their professionalism on MD3.

"The Barcelona winger has scored a respectable 15 goals in 26 starts for Spain, while he's netted in each of his last two when being named in the starting XI too. Along with Spain to be ahead in the 90^th minute, I'll opt for the ex-Man City man to get on the scoresheet in a 11/53.20 double."

Shots and saves the focus in 6/1 Bet Builder double

Paul Higham: "So with Spain such big favourites but Albania not without a chance, let's get the best value we can for an Albanian to hit the target - which they've done eight times in their two games.

"And what if we could get a decent price on the man with the most shots and shots on target for his team? Well Kristjan Asllani is that man as he's priced at 16/54.20 for 1+ shot on target.

"Asllani has had four attempts, two in each game, and hit the target twice, so although he's not prolific in shots on target he's in a decent little run and gives us something to cheer on at a big price."

Spain may drop levels in low scoring clash

Lewis Jones: "I'm always a little wary of teams going into a final group game who have taken six points from six. This is a chance to rest some limbs, switch off slightly and the opposition are usually the ones with the motivation factor.

"At the last four major tournaments (World Cup or Euros) there have been 16 games involving teams playing their third game having taking six points and surprisingly on only six occasions did that team make it nine points from nine. The average goals in those matches points to the under line too with just 1.8 goals scored per game with all 16 of those matches going under 3.5 goals.

"Even though Albania need to win to stand any chance of qualification they will be sitting and soaking up pressure in their usual style and looking to break when possible. Keeping this Spain attack quiet will be tough but there's enough defensive solidity within their ranks and the possibility of the Spanish playing in second gear to seriously consider the under 2.5 goal line here at 11/102.11."

Croatia v Italy (20:00)

Azzurri to frustrate Dalic's side in defining game

Jamie Kemp: "It's been a strange tournament for Croatia so far. While clearly underwhelming in their performance levels and lacking the midfield authority they've had in previous years, they've still generated plenty going forward. Zlatko Dalic's side have had 38 shots across their first two games, while racking up over five expected goals. The problem is they've underperformed their xG to the tune of three goals.

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"Along with not finishing as much as they should have, Croatia have found themselves in the position at EURO 2024 of having to direct the game with the ball, having fallen behind early in both games. Dalic's men have only won one of their last seven games at major tournaments (World Cup/EUROs) when they've had more possession than their opponents, which could well be the case again here, given their need for three points.

"Overall, I'm going to opt for a draw in Leipzig on Monday night. Croatia have struggled to turn their initiative into results at EURO 2024, while they've drawn five of their last nine games at major tournaments. On the other hand, Italy only narrowly edged out Albania despite an otherwise fluent performance, and none of their last seven major tournament games have been decided by more than a single goal.

"Knowing a point will guarantee their qualification, there's every chance the Azzurri will get taken by a wave of pragmatism in the heat of the moment. Just like old times."

100/30 Riccardo Calafiori card tipped as Italy may lose heads

Lewis Jones: "When jeopardy increases, punters should always look to get involved with the cards lines in these third round of matches where there is something on the line for both teams. Since 1992, in 68 third round of group stage matches, four or more cards have been shown in 70 per cent of games.

"There have been over 3.5 cards in both of Italy's group games and such was their lacklustre performance in their defeat to Spain, it wouldn't surprise me if they fell behind at some point in this match.

"That would only add to the chances of potential flashpoints as they know a defeat would put them in danger of elimination. Riccardo Calafiori was carded in the win over Albania and his all-action style from centre-back does lend itself to fouls and cards.

"He was working at a rate of 1.60 fouls per 90 for Bologna last season, highlighting just how aggressive he can be with his defending. The game to produce over 3.5 cards and Calafiori to get one of them at 100/304.30 looks overpriced to me."

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