Euro 2024 Day 11 Stat Pack: 100/30 Riccardo Calafiori card tipped as Italy may lose heads

• Past trends points to under 2.5 goals in Spain's final game

• Four or more cards have been shown in 70 per cent of third round group games

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Albania vs Spain (20:00) - Spain may drop levels in low scoring clash

I'm always a little wary of teams going into a final group game who have taken six points from six. This is a chance to rest some limbs, switch off slightly and the opposition are usually the ones with the motivation factor.

At the last four major tournaments (World Cup or Euros) there have been 16 games involving teams playing their third game having taking six points and surprisingly on only six occasions did that team make it nine points from nine. The average goals in those matches points to the under line too with just 1.8 goals scored per game with all 16 of those matches going under 3.5 goals.

Even though Albania need to win to stand any chance of qualification they will be sitting and soaking up pressure in their usual style and looking to break when possible. Keeping this Spain attack quiet will be tough but there's enough defensive solidity within their ranks and the possibility of the Spanish playing in second gear to seriously consider the under 2.5 goal line here at 11/102.11.

Croatia vs Italy (20:00) - Calafiori card fancied

When jeopardy increases, punters should always look to get involved with the cards lines in these third round of matches where there is something on the line for both teams. Since 1992, in 68 third round of group stage matches, four or more cards have been shown in 70 per cent of games.

There have been over 3.5 cards in both of Italy's group games and such was their lacklustre performance in their defeat to Spain, it wouldn't surprise me if they fell behind at some point in this match.

That would only add to the chances of potential flashpoints as they know a defeat would put them in danger of elimination. Riccardo Calafiori was carded in the win over Albania and his all-action style from centre-back does lend itself to fouls and cards. He was working at a rate of 1.60 fouls per 90 for Bologna last season, highlighting just how aggressive he can be with his defending. The game to produce over 3.5 cards and Calafiori to get one of them at 100/304.30 looks overpriced to me.

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