Euro 2012 Opta Stats: Italy to replicate Swiss success

Italy are the only side Spain have played more than four times at major tournaments (Euros and World Cups) but never beaten in normal time (D3 L3)
This statistic paints a clear image of Italy as Spain's bogey team and even though that fear factor was initially instilled before they completed the transition from also-rans to European and world champions, the Azzurri retain a menace for Vicente del Bosque's side. Spain required a penalty shootout to see Italy off when at their swaggering best in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals, then lost 2-1 to them in Bari last August.

La Roja have never scored in three European Championship games against the Azzurri, though Italy themselves have only scored once in these three games combined
Those patterns point towards under 2.5 goals at 1.674/6, but the prospect of Spain extending their Euro goalless streak against Italy to four matches offers an even greater opportunity to make money. Cesare Prandelli's men conceded only twice in ten qualifiers and kept two clean sheets at Euro 2008 despite their quarter-final exit, so with Spain missing record scorer David Villa, a repeat of the frustration experienced against Switzerland in their World Cup opener is plausible.

Italy did not concede a single second half goal in the qualifiers and were the only side not to do so
There are two ways to use this. If you expect Italy to head into the break with a lead then you can be confident in them seeing it out, rendering 10.519/2 on the half-time/full-time Italy triumph attractive. If you don't fancy making any assumptions as to how the first half will unfold then an alternative is to bet that the opening period features more goals, aware of their infrequency in the second-half of Italy games. Over half of their own strikes in their final five qualifiers came before the interval.

Recommended Bets:
Lay Spain @ 1.784/5
Back Italy to keep a clean sheet @ 4.47/2
Back the first half to have more goals @ 3.4549/20

Click here to read more Opta stats on this encounter