Euro 2012 Opta Stats: Croatia momentum to stun Italy

Alongside Brazil, Croatia are one of only two sides unbeaten in their last five meetings against Italy
And the significance of such a statistic is enhanced by the fact that each of the matches in question took place over the last 20 years with the two that occurred over the last decade both held outside Zagreb yet ending in victory for Croatia. Other Opta stats suggesting that Italy should be laid include that Italy are on their longest winless run (four games) since the one spanning their awful World Cup 2010 and haven't triumphed in five fixtures at international tournaments.

Croatia have won their last four European Championship group games, and have scored in the last six
However, if you are feeling pretty bold then rather than merely laying the favourites, there is a case to be made for backing Croatia at 3.613/5, their impressive current European Championship streak forming the foundation. The scoring insight above is also intriguing given that substitute Antonio Di Natale's goal against Spain was the Azzurri's first in 360 minutes, indicating that they are far from certain to respond if Croatia do take the lead.

Mario Mandzukic was only the second Croatian to score a brace at a European Championship, after Davor Suker at Euro 1996 against Denmark
Ivan Klasnic, Mladen Petric Eduardo da Silva and Ivica Olic have all deprived Mandzukic of a chance to be Croatia's main man in recent years, but with the Wolfsburg forward entrusted after three important goals in the final months of qualifying, he delivered against Ireland. With Opta noting Croatia's aptitude for headed goals - a knack he mastered on Sunday - and Italy without a clean sheet in four outings, he will likely be afforded opportunities to add to his tally.

Recommended Bets:
Lay Italy @ 2.3611/8
Back Croatia to win @ 3.613/5
Back Mandzukic to score @ 4.57/2

Click here to read more Opta stats on this encounter