Sweden v France: Blanc's men to win by a couple

Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Live On: ITV 4

Match Odds

Sweden are out of Euro 2012 after losing their first two games. Such opponents are sometimes thought to be dangerous, but since Euro 1980 there are just a couple of examples of teams with nothing to play for beating those with something more riding on the outcome: in 1992 Scotland beat the CIS 3-0; in 2000 Russia beat Greece 2-1. Those with something to play for have won seven of the eight other such match-ups. The one they didn't win was a goalless draw between Greece and Germany in 1980, when a draw was good enough to guarantee the Germans a place in the final.

Opta tell us that France have had nothing like the problems England have endured against Sweden: they are unbeaten in 11 against the Scandinavians (W6-D5-L0).

Les Bleus need a win to give themselves the best possible chance of finishing top of the group and probably thus avoid a quarter-final with Spain. That's a pretty big motivation. Laurent Blanc's unbeaten streak is now 23 and, with his team winning 70% of those games, France are a good bet to complete their Group D campaign in the best possible fashion.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Erik Hamren has bucked Swedish football tradition to deploy an attacking system in Ukraine. The experiment failed largely because of a wobbly defence. His charges have scored in both defeats, however, and looked dangerous from set pieces, which is where France were most vulnerable against a similar England side. The threat will be enhanced if Zlatan Ibrahimovic ducks this game and Seb Larsson takes charge of free kicks within shooting range.

Going back to Euro 1980, 28/48 final group matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals. That too suggests there is a little bit of value about 1.9620/21 for Over 2.5 Goals on Tuesday night, although this should probably not be your biggest bet of the night: although 11 of Sweden's 12 competitive games under Hamren have broken the 2.5-goal barrier, ten of France's 12 competitive games under Blanc have finished shy of three goals.

Asian Handicap

France might have been a standout selection in the Corners Match Bet - Sweden have some of the tournament's least adventurous wide men - but Blanc changed the formation against Ukraine and les Bleus were less prolific collectors. And you will be very lucky to get even 1.51/2 about them to earn the most in this match.

The new system has introduced a new attacker, Jeremy Menez, and the team seemed stronger for his forward bursts. If England and France both win on Tuesday, finishing positions will be determined by goal difference. The team with the bigger win probably won't have to play Spain. If France keep pushing, they should find ways through a Swedish defence that conceded three to England and there will be value in backing them to win by at least two clear goals.

If you take France -1.0 on the Asian handicap - hopefully at around 2.56/4 - you will be paid out if they win by two or more and get your stake returned if the margin of victory is just one.

Bookings Odds

France and Sweden are the dirtiest teams in Group D. Sweden committed 34 fouls in their first two games and France 25. Neither England or Ukraine have reached 20.

Pedro Proenca, the Portuguese referee who took charge of the Champions League last month, has not traditionally been the hair-trigger sort, but he's produced at least five yellows in each of the six European and international games he's overseen this season, including Spain-Ireland on Thursday.

A yellow is worth two points in the Bookings Odds market. If Sweden contest the game fully, an odds-against price about 9pts and Above would be tempting.

Best Bet: Back France @ 1.768/11
Other Recommended Bet: Back France -1.0 @ 2.56/4 on the Asian Handicap