Spain v Italy: Tight game certain as big guns finally face a real test

Kick-off: 17:00 BST
Live On: ITV

Match Odds

Italy qualified comfortably for Euro 2012, but it was an easy group and Cesare Prandelli has not yet banished all of the dark memories about Marcello Lippi's wretched World Cup defence a couple of years ago. Go further back and you will uncover a modest record in major tournaments: they ended winning the World Cup six years ago, but since the beginning of that competition they have won only 2/12 finals matches in normal time.

Those 12 games include a meeting with Spain four years ago, when a goalless draw led to a Spanish victory on penalties. La Roja have done quite well since then - you might have heard - and Vicente Del Bosque's team start as favourites to win this game, despite Opta's reminder that Spain have not won any of their six finals matches with Italy in normal time.

We have some questions too. Who's going to score the goals in David Villa's absence? Who's going to marshal the defence in Carles Puyol's absence? And, most fundamentally, doesn't everyone kind of know how to deal with Spain now?

The reigning champions have lost on foreign soil to Argentina, Portugal, Italy and England in the last couple of years, albeit in friendlies. Their Barcelona and Real Madrid players have been in action more than most in recent years and might finally be ready to let the rest of the world catch up.

The draw - always a runner in matches that are likely to be low-scoring - is 3.711/4.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Solid defence was the bedrock of Italy's successful qualifying campaign. The Azzurri conceded fewer goals than anyone else: two in ten matches. Prandelli has a more adventurous soul than some of his predecessors, but he is restricted by the limitations of his attackers. His best forward, Giuseppe Rossi, is injured and the level to which Antonio Cassano will be able to play is unclear. No one else scored more than once in qualifying.

Mario Balotelli? Let's see.

The opening round of matches in European Championships tends to be low-scoring: 35/48 since 1980 have stayed Under 2.5 Goals. The trend was more pronounced in eight-team tournaments (15/16) but is still there in the diluted 16-team format (20/32). This time, however, 1.618/13 looks plenty short enough.

You might even prefer to be the other side of the line. Both teams are missing good defenders - Puyol for Spain, Barzagli and Criscito for Italy - and, if Del Bosque dares to play a proper winger like Navas or Pedro, the pitch will open up for Xavi, Iniesta and Pirlo.

Corners Odds

The most up-to-date suggestions are that Del Bosque will start Silva ahead of Navas and Pedro. If he does that, Spain - who are going to dominate possession, remember - will keep the game narrow, the more so because Ramos has been moved inside to centre-half and Arbeloa is a less daring right-back.

Jordi Alba might overlap Iniesta on the other side, but it remains to be seen how brave he will be on his major tournament debut.

Prandelli could set up Italy in a few different ways, but all are designed to make light of the absence of any dashing wide men in his squad.

Both teams are strongest in the middle of the pitch and that could mean corners are few and far between.

Sending Off?

Sergio Ramos has been sent off more times for Real Madrid than anyone else in history. His career red-card total is a monstrous 14. For the next few weeks he's playing alongside Gerard Pique, who he probably hates.

Daniele De Rossi missed most of Italy's 2006 campaign because he elbowed Brian McBride in the face. Some say he's cleaned up his act, but he was at it again last season. The Roma midfielder might be asked to play out of position in defence for this match.

Young Balotelli also know how to get sent off in big games: Arsenal and Liverpool this season; a couple of other European games in earlier campaigns.

Viktor Kassai is the referee. Each of his last six European and international games have made up 9pts and Above in the Bookings Odds market and two included red cards.

Spain and Italy kept it pretty clean in qualifying, but that's because their opponents hardly tested them. On Sunday there won't be many players on the pitch who are used to losing. Their reactions to defeat, should it loom for either side, will be interesting.

Best Bet: Back 9 or less @ 2.56/4 in Corners Odds
Other Recommended Bet: Back 'Yes' @ 4.67/2 in Sending Off?

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