Netherlands v Denmark: Dutch rearguard could well be breached

The recent drift on the Netherlands to win Euro 2012 has been a little baffling. There was certainly a case to say that they were too short at 7.06/1 but 8.07/1 was starting to look tempting. Their current price of 7.413/2 looks about right.

I made a pre tournament rule to avoid the statistic which tells us that Bert Van Maarwijk's team averaged 3.7 goals a game during qualifying (that figure drops to 2.42 if you ignore the hammerings of San Marino) but I can't help but feel that goals will be on the agenda in their opening group game against Denmark.

The Danes have been pretty much ignored in all of the tournament previews that I've read, and that's largely because of their draw. They're rightly outsiders in the Group of Death, but finished ahead of Portugal in qualifying and mustn't be completely discounted.

Match Odds
There's a legitimate case to be made for opposing the Netherlands in the Match Odds market at 1.728/11, but we shouldn't get carried away with Denmark. They're better than they're given credit for, but they're still up against a richly talented Dutch side. I think that Van Maarwijk's men are the likelier winners, but that the game could be a lot harder for them than many expect.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Netherlands Clean Sheet?
The bare stats are against the Danes here as they haven't beaten the Netherlands in a competitive game for 45 years, but they scored in each of their qualifying games, and it's not the biggest leap of faith to think that they can find a way through a Dutch rearguard that was breached three times in matches against Sweden and Hungary, and also by Finland. The only clean sheets kept by the Netherlands were home and away against San Marino and Moldova, and then away in Hungary and Finland when they were able to throttle the opposition. They won't do that here, as this is a better Danish side than the one we saw when the two countries met at Soccer City two years ago, and 2.186/5 about there being over 2.5 goals in the match looks too big. That price is as big as it is because of the tendency for European Championship games to be low scoring, but we mustn't let historical tournament facts get in the way of the reality of a specific match. "No" to a Netherlands clean sheet is also available at 1.758/11 and that too is worth supporting as I fancy Denmark to score, particularly given the absence of Joris Mathijsen at centre half.

Best Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Netherlands v Denmark @ 2.186/5

Recommended Bet
Back "No" to Netherlands Clean Sheet @ 1.758/11

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