Russia v Czech Republic: Advocaat's men the smart pick

Russia v Czech Republic, 19:45 KO, Live on ITV1, Match Odds: Russia 2.24, Czech Republic 3.85, The Draw 3.35.

Match Odds

Group A is generally regarded as the weakest and most open of the Euro 2012 first-round pools, but a closer look at the form and talent of these two sides suggests Russia are deservedly favourites.

Dick Advocaat's side lost just once in 10 qualifiers to top Group 8 ahead of a decent Republic of Ireland team. Many of the squad are survivors from the Russia that reached the semi-finals in Austria and Switzerland four years ago. The vast experience of the 23-man party could prove crucial in a tight group. And in Andrey Arshavin, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Aleksandr Kerzharov, Russia possess three players with decent international scoring records. As Eastern European football expert Jonathan Wilson explains in greater detail, there are further factors in Russia's favour as well.

Czech Republic had one of the worst qualifying records of any side reaching the finals: they finished second behind Spain in Group 1 and were lucky to be drawn against Montenegro - the only second-placed side with an inferior record - in the play-offs. Their squad bears no comparison to the side that came second in 1996 or reached the semi-finals in 2004. The fact Milan Baros remains an integral part of coach Michal Bilek's plans despite a barren run at international level hints at the lack of riches in attack.

Finally, Opta points out Czech Republic have won only two of 13 internationals against Russia. At 2.245/4, Russia are a solid selection to make a winning start.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Overs is a tempting selection because group favourites Russia are likely to play boldly. Coach Advocaat will be keen to relieve the pressure by collecting three points against beatable opponents before facing co-hosts Poland and awkward Greece.

The question is whether the Czechs can contribute to an overs scoreline. Their lack of depth in attack is an obvious flaw: they averaged just 1.5 goals a game in the qualifiers, with a third of their goals coming in a single game in Lithuania (4-1 win).

I prefer overs to unders at 2.829/5 because Russia are likely to make this an open game, but it's a fairly weak selection.

Half Time

"We're not going to suddenly go defensive. In the qualifying we were successful because we went out to win games. We have to be positive," said Advocaat in a recent interview with World Soccer magazine (you can read previews at the online version of the magazine, still essential reading for English-speaking aficionados of the global game).

I expect him to stay true to his word, with Russia looking to dominate from the start. Their approach ought to lead to chances at both ends, which is why a lay of the half-time draw at 2.1211/10 is a decent pick. There will be some cagey games at this tournament, but this ought to be one of the more open ones.

Half Time/Full Time

Russia are a decent bet to win and a decent selection to lead at half-time, so it follows that Russia-Russia is worth considering on the Half Time/Full Time market at 4.216/5. This is one for fans looking to back Advocaat's side at more speculative odds than the 2.245/4 on them simply winning the game.

Best Bet
Back Russia to beat Czech Republic @ 2.245/4
Other Recommended Bet
Lay the Half-time draw @ 2.1211/10

James Eastham made a profit tipping for Betfair on the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America. You can follow him on Twitter: @james_eastham

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