Holland v Germany: Dutch to cark it in Kharkiv

Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Live On: BBC

Match Odds

Germany's performance against Portugal might not have satisfied those who backed them to win Euro 2012, but the result was a good one and the Mannschaft are in a strong position in Group B.

The position is so strong, in fact, that Joachim Low will surely consider launching an assault of Holland's jugular in Kharkiv. The reward for victory over the Dutch is the likely elimination of a serious rival. The risk of defeat is relatively small: there would be another chance to secure qualification in the third group game with Denmark.

Germany overran Portugal in midfield and it was only their own deficient finishing that stopped them scoring more than once. You could say the same of Holland - the match with Denmark was theirs to win - but Germany are set up to thrive against attacking teams, and that is exactly what Holland must be on Wednesday.

Over/Under Goals

The second round of group-stage games tends to be more open than the first: in European Championships since 1980 the ratio of games with Over 2.5 Goals increases from 27% to 44%.

This match in particular is threating to be quite open, even if Joris Mathijsen is fit to come into the centre of Holland's defence.

Bert Van Marwijk's team scored freely in qualifying and leaked goals to Finland, Hungary (three in one match) and Sweden (four in two matches). Low's men failed to shut out any of their last five opponents in qualifying group A.

Thumping wins over San Marino are no guide to games like this one, but entire campaigns can tell us something about a team. These two were the highest scorers of anyone in qualifying and this tallies with attacking talent within their ranks. Over 2.5 Goals is very tempting at 2.0621/20.

Both Teams to Score?

Opta reports that both teams have scored in all seven competitive Holland-Germany clashes.

Unlike Over 2.5 Goals, backing both teams to score covers the 1-1 draw, which is a clear favourite in the Correct Score market. The price on both teams to score is shorter, however, at 1.768/11.

If the score does hit 1-1 at some point not too close to the final whistle, neither team will sit back and a combination of disappointing attack and excellent defence will be required to keep it that way.

Because the draw is the primary target of neither team you might prefer to take your chances with an odds-against punt on Over 2.5 Goals.

Cue 1-1 draw.

Sending Off?

Football history is what we're interested in here and it reveals a rivalry between Holland and Germany that began in 1974, when a rather good Dutch team were beaten by a more modestly talented German side. The teams fought and fought - literally - until Marco van Basten gained revenge in Euro 88. Rudi Voller and Frank Rijkaard reignited things in 1990.

Jonas Eriksson looks a pretty sensible appointment as referee, alas. He has sent players off in only 4/27 European and international matches, and only one-third of those games reached 9pts in the Booking Odds market. The pair's most recent competitive meeting was overseen by another Swede, Anders Frisk. It finished 1-1 at Euro 2004 and the card count was a mere 2-2.

Best Bet: Back Germany @ 2.546/4 to win
Other Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0621/20

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