France v England: Defensive woes open route to profit

France v England, Live on ITV1, 17:00 KO, Match Odds: France 2.56, England 3.2, The Draw 3.3.
Match Odds
If you'd bet on this game several months ago, France would have been a real value selection. There was a time when les Bleus were underdogs, which was baffling considering their superior individual talent and the solid if unspectacular collective progress made under Laurent Blanc during the qualifiers.

Unfortunately, the market has straightened itself out. France are now favourites, with the match odds looking right on the eve of the game. The 2.568/5 on Karim Benzema and co. will draw in plenty of punters, but I'd recommend the safety net of 0&-0.5 on the Asian handicap (2.11111/100) or DRAW NO BET (1.738/11).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The consensus is Roy Hodgson will make England difficult to beat, and both his personal track record as a coach and the players available to him suggest this view is correct. But looking at the prices, overs at 2.8415/8 is a more sensible selection than unders at 1.528/15.

This is primarily because of personnel concerns. England have left out Rio Ferdinand and lost Gary Cahill to injury. John Terry will almost certainly perform in an unfamiliar right-side central defensive role, and has limited experience of playing alongside Joleon Lescott.

France's problems are as serious. The absence of Eric Abidal robs the back four of calm and experience, while the centre-half partnership of Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes has been unconvincing in France's warm-up friendlies. Read Betfair's Michael Cox's excellent analysis of France's various defensive problems here.

Then there is the issue of whether Hodgson has worked with the England players long enough to drill them into an effective defensive unit. The answer is likely to be yes, to a point, but not to the degree he would like. There is also the question of whether Steven Gerrard has the discipline to play as a second holding player or shuttle-runner alongside Scott Parker. Should the Liverpool captain be caught ahead of the ball too often, England's defence will be vulnerable against France's formidable attacking options (Karim Benzema, Olivier Giroud, Franck Ribery, Hatem Ben Arfa, Jeremy Menez, Marvin Martin and Samir Nasri).

Both Teams to Score?
A more cautious and arguably smarter selection than overs is 'Yes' in this market. The arguments put forward above apply here, but by accepting the shorter price on both teams finding the net you have the 1-1 draw on your side. And 2.245/4 is still a decent price considering the teams' defensive concerns.

Corners Match Bet
I expect France to spend more time than England in dangerous attacking areas on the flanks. This is because England are likely to be the more cautious of the two sides, and also because les Bleus possess the players to cause serious damage in those areas of the field.

Franck Ribery goes into the tournament in fantastic form. He has shone in France's warm-up games and will put Glen Johnson under pressure as often as possible.

It is unclear who will start on the right wing, but France are blessed with plenty of options - Menez, Ben Arfa, Nasri and possibly Malouda. With so many players available, coach Laurent Blanc will be able to throw on fresh legs to put Ashley Cole under pressure late on. France also have one of the best attacking full-backs in the competition in Lille's Mathieu Debuchy, who has already scored and set up goals in an international career that is less than a year old.

Given how the game is likely to pan out, France are a good selection to have more corners than England. You're likely to find around 1.910/11 close to kick-off.

Best Bet
France to win Corners Match Bet @ 1.910/11

Other Recommended Bet
'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? @2.245/4

James Eastham picked four out of four winners on Group A games Poland v Greece and Russia v Czech Republic last Friday. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

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