England v Ukraine: Three Lions will not be tamed over in Donetsk

Tobias Gourlay
18 June 2012

Wayne Rooney is available to play at the back end of Group D

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The Three Lions will face a hostile crowd at the Donbass Arena, but the on-field opposition is not nearly as intimidating and Tobias Gourlay believes Roy Hodgson will notch a second consecutive victory

England should be chastened by the mistakes they made against Sweden

Back England @ 2.3 to beat Ukraine

Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Live On: ITV

Match Odds

This is a must-win game for Ukraine if they are not to emulate the ignominy of Austria and Switzerland four years ago and join Poland on the sidelines of their own tournament.

The market doesn't think they can do it and makes England the favourites to take three points and give themselves the best possible chance of finishing above France and thus - probably - avoiding tournament favourites Spain in the quarter-finals.

Wayne Rooney is available for the Three Lions after serving a two-match suspension and ready to play. His inclusion in the squad suggested Roy Hodgson would use him at the earliest possible stage. Productive performances from Danny Welbeck and Andy Carroll are unlikely to have changed the coach's mind.

With Hodgson so new to the role and not sure of his best team, backing England to win might not make for a totally carefree 90 minutes on Tuesday evening, but it seems like the right thing to do. They should be chastened by the defensive mistakes that dogged their attempts to beat Sweden on Friday, and Ukraine have similar problems.

Oleg Blokhin hasn't been in his job much longer than Hodgson and is yet to get the best out of the wide forwards, Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko. Fervent supporters aside, they are perhaps the home side's best hope of getting the result they need. Thirty-five-year-old Andriy Shevchenko might still be quicker than John Terry, but Ukraine's advantages are few and England should deliver another three points.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Going back to Euro 1980, 28/48 final group matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals. Recent defensive efforts by both teams suggest this match might well breach the line again.

In lieu of knowing what their best teams are, Blokhin and Hodgson have taken 'reactive' approaches to earlier games. It remains to be seen how they respond to the greater intensity of a final group match, but, even if they are safety-first to begin with, it is not clear they have the personnel to totally shut down the opposition. Perhaps there is a bit of value, then, in Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0621/20.

Bookings Odds

Viktor Kassai has pulled 9pts and Above out of his pocket in each of the seven European and international matches since the start of October. Just last Sunday he booked seven players in Spain's opening match with Italy.

Ukraine and England are not among the tournament's most penalised teams so far, but the importance of this result and the high spirits of the crowd could create an atmosphere in which players on both sides feel pressure and start to behave differently.

Both Teams to Score?
Euro 2012 has been pleasantly free and liberal with the goals. At the time of writing - before Group C's final matches on Monday evening - both teams have scored in 14/20 matches. It's 1.814/5 that neither defence will emerge unbroken from this match, but, with Ukraine rarely drawing - they've done so only once in their last 14 outings - and needing to go all-out for the win, you might not need to cover 1-1. The odds-against price about Over 2.5 Goals should have more appeal.

Best Bet: Back England @ 2.35/4
Other Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0621/20