Spain v Scotland: Scottish qualification hopes lie in Kaunas

Spain v Scotland, Tuesday 1945, BBC Two Scotland, Match Odds: Spain 1.21/5, Scotland 19.537/2, The Draw 8.615/2

The general feeling in Scotland is one of resentment to referee Kevin Blom. The Dutchman who, a month ago, awarded Czech Republic a controversial penalty then failed to do the same for Scotland at the other end moments later. Two decisions which ultimately took qualification out of Scotland's own hands.

Scotland's problems, however, began in the reverse fixture when Craig Levein opted to play a 4-6-0 formation in Prague. It sent out a negative message to the rest of the group and, more importantly, to the Scottish players. Levein was effectively telling his players that he did not believe that they were good enough to go to the Czech Republic and win the game.

Which makes it is all the more remarkable that the Scots find themselves in their current predicament. If they can match the Czechs' result in Lithuania this Tuesday they'll be in the Euro 2012 play-offs.

In reality there'll probably be more Scottish eyes on happenings in Kaunas than Alicante.

Perhaps Levein has learned from his mistakes in Prague having vowed to go into this game "and try to win". Regardless of the tactics and formation that the Scots adopt it's impossible to make an argument for them beating the World and European champions on their home patch. Scottish hopes rest on Lithuania defeating Czech Republic.

If you don't mind backing short prices then the 1.21/5 available on Spain in the Match Odds market will offer you a better, and quicker, return on your investment than any bank. I don't like the phrase 'free money' but in situations like this you can see why some people opt to use it.

In potentially one-sided matches such as this one it can often pay to look at some of the more peripheral betting markets. With Kenny Miller out injured Craig Mackail-Smith played as a lone striker in Liechtenstein on Saturday. Clear-cut chances were few and far between.

Regardless of whether the Cardiff City striker returns or Mackail-Smith continues I don't expect them to threaten the Spanish goal too frequently. Back a Spanish clean sheet at odds of 1.728/11 and Spain to win to nil at a similar price.

Recommended Bets:
Back Spain Clean Sheet @ 1.728/11
Back Spain to win to nil @ 1.768/11

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