Euro 2012 Day Seven tips: Croats go aerial

Croatia v Italy

To score

Think of Italy and what image appears in your mind? The nooks, crannies and alleys of the canal city, Venice? The beautiful people of Milan? Or a hulking, scarred centre-half who would head a jumbo jet clear from the penalty area and kick his own granny to keep a clean sheet?

Probably the latter. Shame then that Italy don't really have one of those sorts these days. Against Croatia they are expected to continue with Daniele De Rossi at centre-half because Andrea Barzagli, schooled in the methods of the ugly defender, is not yet ready to return.

It could be a key miss. And hopefully Croatia will be able to exploit it. They are not shy about launching the ball long. Despite having the subtle alchemy of Luka Modric, the Croats love nothing more than sticking it in the mixer and this provides us with a betting opportunity.

Mario Mandzukic headed in two of their three goals against Ireland as they lived up to their reputation as a side who test teams with their ability in the air (43 per cent of Croatia's qualifying goals were headers). Nikica Jelavic, the impressive Everton striker, also notched.

Between them the pair could give the inexperienced De Rossi some problems and it is worth backing the dup to get on the scoresheet.

Bookings

Two Croats were booked in their 3-1 defeat of Ireland and four Italians received yellows in the 1-1 draw with Spain. This could be a physical affair with both outfits prepared to dish out a bruising. Backing 25-45 points (10 points for a yellow, 25 for a red) could be a decent shout.

Recommended bets

Jelavic to score at any time at 4.003/1
Mandzukic to score at any time 5.104/1

Spain v Ireland

To score

I tell you what, these Spaniards are getting a little cocky aren't they? "We may not play a striker". They have learned nothing since the Armada. Mind you, Ireland's Championship Select XI is not likely to blast a hole in their hull and one has to fear for the Irish who could be sunk without a trace.

Ireland, bizarrely, were unable to cope with the physical and aerial threat from Croatia. It should have been right up their street. Spain's mesmeric style may leave them baffled.

Vicente Del Bosque said he was likely to keep faith with team that drew with Italy. And that means no No 9 in the traditional sense. Alvaro Negredo, Fernando Torres or Fernando Llorente are likely to remain on the bench and if so that has an impact on the goalscorer odds.

At the moment the trio are 6.6011/2, 5.709/2 and 5.905/1 for the first goal and, of course, even shorter to score at any time. That is handy for us as they take up a big old chunk of the book.

Cesc Fabregas and David Silva are the men to look for in the absence of those 'recognised' forwards. Fabregas was more advanced against Italy but the two could yo-yo against the Irish. Fabregas, who equalised in the opener, is 3.505/2 for a goal and Silva 3.7511/4.

Sending off

Spain could break all possession percentage records in this match and Ireland could be driven to distraction. It is not as though Ireland are full of hot heads, it is just that niggly foul after niggly foul could be punished with a red. It is 4.507/2 that a player receives his marching orders.