Euro 2012 Expert View: Markus Theil on Germany

The preparation

It was a difficult task for Jogi Löw to prepare his team adequately for Euro 2012. The "DFB-Elf" started their camp on the Island of Sardinia, due to the German Cup final (Bayern Munich v Dortmund), with only roughly half their squad around. After changing to the South of France, Sami Khedira, Mezut Özil and eight Bayern Munich players were still missing. So in terms of a typically German, efficiently planned preparation, this has been rather poor.

The Champions League hangover and other problems

A second big problem may be the mental condition of the Bayern players after the Champions League disaster. To make matters worse, Bayern had to play a match against a 'Dutch' side (because of their quarrel concerning Robben`s injury two years ago) on Tuesday after the CL final, before they could finally hop on the plane, with three lost titles in the back of their mind.

Although Jogi Löw claimed that Bastian Schweinsteiger and co. are strong enough to leave their mishaps behind, the German public thinks their disappointing results at club level might also affect their performance at EURO 2012. So it will be interesting to see how the Bayern players react during their individual talks with team psychologist Hans-Dieter Herman when they eventually join the team, and to what extent Löw and Flick will maybe change their preferred team to include more BVB (Dortmund) players.
When Bayern beat Real Madrid in the CL semi finals, there was confidence in Germany being able to beat Spain in a potential final. Germans trust their reputation as a great "Turnier-Mannschaft", even if they haven't won a title since 1996.

A final concern will be how well Dortmund and Bayern players, who have built up a proper rivalry in the League and Cup (similar to Real-Barcelona in Spain) can get along in Poland/Ukraine. But German players are usually so "pflichtbewusst" (conscious of their responsibility) that they put everything to one side for the cause.

Cause for optimism

German fans are looking forward to seeing lots of goals (they scored 34 in 10 qualification matches), as our midfielders and strikers have been really impressive for their clubs this season: Miroslav Klose had a brilliant season with Lazio, Mario Gomez scored 40 goals this season, Lukas Podolski was the only star for relegated Cologne and has always convinced when playing for "Deutschland". Other than them Schweinsteiger, Thomas Müller, Özil, Tony Kroos and last but not least Götze, the revelation of this season, are always dangerous in front of goal and can create that little extra magic when needed.

Lahm to shepherd the back four

The only area where German fans are uncertain what to expect is the defence. The only set player is their captain, Philipp Lahm. Experts are very curious about where the Bayern skipper, who bravely took the first penalty in the shoot out against Chelsea, will play. If he defends the right side, Schmelzer will probably play on the left. If Löw chooses Lahm for the left side (where he has been excellent in the last few tournaments), Germany will have problems on the right hand side, as neither of the other defenders are actually used to playing there. So God (or rather referee) forbid that Lahm should be suspended for a crucial match. That would give Löw a massive problem.

Löw on a high

Löw has developed an enormous self-confidence among the team since he took over from Jurgen Klinsmann, under whom he was actually responsible for tactics anyway. He has implemented the term "Vertikaler Fußball". It translates into something like: passing the ball quickly upfront, without playing the ball 'horizontally' in midfield'. The fact that German footballers are now no longer seen as tanks and fighting machines dutifully fulfilling their tasks, but rather as creative players with lots of character, has played a big part in making the Nationalmannschaft a team everybody likes in Germany.

The mood back home

People have already started putting black-red-golden covers over their side mirrors (aka "mirror Frenchies"); petrol stations and supermarkets are fully stocked with souvenirs and posters with Schweinsteiger and Co. Pubs and cities are busy planning public events with large screens to watch the matches live. The manager himself has also become far more relaxed than (for example in the 90s) when he hardly spoke to certain journalists after losing matches. The German public trusts him, and his interviews have been pretty convincing. Everybody knows that the World Cup 2014 is his major goal, after which he may well retire as the DFB-Team coach. So EURO 2012 is a big chance for him to show how close Germany can come to winning a title after losing against Spain in Vienna four years ago.

Added incentive

Besides Löw's meticulous game-planning and preparation, there is another big plus point one has to mention: Klose and Podolski are of Polish origin and they will be very eager to deliver in front of their 'home' crowd, if/when Germany play their quarter-final match. Unfortunately, they have been drawn to play their group in the Ukraine, but maybe the prospect of playing in Poland if they qualify for the final eight, will give these two some extra push.

The tournament bet

Germany have a lot of respect towards their group opponents. They have been humiliated by all three teams before in a big tournament (Netherlands 1988, Denmark 1992, Portugal 2000) but still seem to be strong enough to leave (at least) Denmark and Portugal behind. All the players claim the title as their goal - and believe in it. If Germany can sort out their defence, and improve the current mood of the Bayern players, they will be a near-certainty to make the final. Everything else will be a disappointment to their fans at home.

Back Germany to reach the final @ 2.546/4