Euro 2012: Ignore the obvious to find leakiest defence

One of the most intriguing markets offered by Betfair for Euro 2012, and one perhaps best tackled with the aid of a calculator, is on which team will concede the most goals at the tournament.

The favourites are Denmark 5.85/1, followed by Republic of Ireland 7.613/2 and quite a bit further back Ukraine 13.012/1, Sweden 13.012/1, Croatia 13.525/2 and Greece 13.525/2. All six are odds-against to qualify, as are the next two in the running.

The market therefore strongly suggests that the most porous backline in the competition will be possessed by a side who only get to show their defensive ineptitude for three games before heading home. However, on the evidence of past editions, this is no certainty.

At Euro 2008, in keeping with the recent tradition for international tournaments to start fairly cagily, no country conceded more than six goals in their three group matches, a total "achieved" by Czech Republic and France.

That left plenty of time for Turkey, who shipped five in that period, to canter towards the unwanted distinction with an eventual tally of nine, despite overachieving by reaching the semi-finals.

Euro 2004 ended on a different trajectory, woeful Bulgaria's nine leaked in the group proving unassailable, yet that was the sole occasion in the competition's history that a nation had let in three more than any other during the group stage.

At Euro 2000, quarter-finalists Yugoslavia were the most vulnerable at the back, while in 1996, runners-up Czech Republic tied on eight with the swiftly eliminated Russia.

The advice consequently is to instead pick a team you expect to progress into the knockout rounds, albeit with a fair amount of trouble on the way.

The obvious candidates are whichever of the three giants in Group B - Portugal 15.529/2, Netherlands 16.531/2 and Germany 16.531/2 - you trust most to get through.

Portugal, whose coach Paulo Bento refuses to consider Ricardo Carvalho and Jose Bosingwa for selection, conceded the most of all 14 qualifiers in the preliminary process, so are this writer's fancy.