Euro 2012 Day 16 Tips: Gomez to fire Germany

Ed Hawkins
28 June 2012

Gomez should return for Germany

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Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year, previews the best betting opportunities in the goalscorer markets ahead of the second semi-final

"Gomez can receive balls through the middle to catch a sometime-static Italy"

Back Mario Gomez to score at 3.052/1

Germany v Italy
To score

Germany coach Joachim Low is the paymaster. Will he pick Mario Gomez or Miroslav Klose to lead the line against Italy? Whichever one he chooses, punters will launch into on this market.

It looks likely to be Gomez, who was rested for the quarter-final victory over Greece. Gomez is a far more powerful player than Klose and his form, up until his day off, had been terrific. He had scored three goals and although one can admire Germany's strength in depth, it was slightly odd that a striker with rhythm, often an ephemeral quality, would be jeopardised.

Gomez is 3.052/1 to score and he should cause Italy problems, even though after England's paucity of attacking against them it is a struggle to remember where they are vulnerable. But Gomez can receive balls through the middle to catch a sometime-static Italy backline square and he is decent in the air. There were times against Ireland and Croatia when Italy looked worried by the aerial threat.

Klose, who is 3.8014/5 is a different player to Gomez. He is not as muscular or as pacy. He may be smarter, though. A fox-in-the-box type he can be guaranteed to snaffle a chance if it comes his way. He also knows Italian football well as he plies his trade for Lazio in the Serie A.

Other Germans to watch out for - we expect them to win by the way, folks by dint of Italy's sapping quarter-final - are Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller. They will be instructed to break from the flanks and cut in. They are 4.804/1 and 5.509/2 respectively.

Italy will rely on Andrea Pirlo. Not for goals, though. He is the creator and it was noticeable how deep he was at times against England. He is not great value at 9.6017/2 - one can only see him scoring from a free kick - and instead will attempt to play in runners from deep.

Daniele De Rossi was almost a beneficiary against Roy Hodgson's team and he catches the eye at big odds of 16.50. Claudio Marchisio was also a threat and gets a quote of 11.0010/1. Still, perhaps we should not get too hung up about the England match.

Germany will not be in the least defensive and with it being a more expansive game, that will suit the out-and-out strikers Antonio Di Natale, Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli. Balotelli, by the way, was superb against England. A menace. Although wasteful he will get plenty of support at 4.507/2.

Recommended bet

M Gomez to score at 3.052/1

First goalscorer

Gomez is 6.4011/2 and Klose 7.6013/2. But what about De Rossi, who is also a threat from corners? He is 34.0033/1. Balotelli, who Italy tried to find with long balls against England early on, is 11.0010/1 and not a bad shout.

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