Euro 2012 Diary: Farewell Poland good luck Italy

Richard Aikman
30 June 2012

Will Allesandro Diamanti score the last goal of Euro 2012?

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After 33 days in Poland Richard Aikman is on his way home. He'll miss some aspects of his 'holiday' but he'll be glad to get back to England with the news that Italy are the European Champions...

"Italy is a different animal from the one that drew 1-1 with Spain because they have since recovered defender Andrea Barzagli and reverted to Prandelli’s preferred 4-3-1-2 formation."

And so the end is near, And so I face the iron curtain. Farewell Poland. And not before time.

It's not that this hasn't been a wonderful experience, but I do feel as though I've been stationed out here for 33 years rather than 33 days. When I arrived there were three reporting teams in Krakow. The quietly confident but affable Dutch, the brash and curiously cocksure English and us, Team Italy, bags still packed in our rooms, 'pronto' for the sharp exit.

Yet we never received our marching orders. While the Oranje went down in flames, and England did what they did best and lost on penalties, Italy somehow soldiered on. There was some entertainment to be found in bidding farewell to Team England. Andrea Bocelli's 'Con Te Partirò' ('Time To Say Goodbye') provided a thoughtful soundtrack to their departure from the hotel as they cursed and swore their way to the taxi, but now there is no one to see me off. Only a large unpaid bar bill, including several shots of vodka (which I don't drink), to settle as my only memento.

I am the last one left to turn out the lights. Perhaps I should grow a Mario-Balotelli-style Mohican to honour the occasion. It didn't look too bad on the Italian premier Mario Monti this morning, Il Corriere dello Sport having mocked up a photo of him with a Balotelli-style haircut after he forced a climbdown from the German Chancellor Angela Merkel over her stance on an EU bailout. "The two Super Marios" reads the inspired headline.

The newspaper provided some light relief from the depressing emptiness of the breakfast room, never the most inspiring of places at the best of times. 'Endless Love' was yet again playing on an endless loop as I stared at the grey scrambled eggs, the maroon sausages and the bright-green pickled gherkins on the buffet cart. Even the espresso machine had gone, as if I didn't already have the feeling that I had outstayed my welcome. As I write there's just me and the yapping dog in the yard outside. I hate the dog, but I'll miss it, strangely, like a scab you like to pick. Who will I be able to throw apples at when I get home?

The Italians have no such concerns. They are off to Kiev, where they are aiming to finish this tournament the way they started it, with a strong performance against Spain. The Azzurri, yet again, are the underdogs and it is a position that suits them down to the ground.

They were as long as 5.04/1 to beat Germany in the semi-final and their 3.953/1 is almost as attractive a proposition. Needless to say, as world and European champions, Spain are a formidable side and worthy finalists, but with the exception of their 4-0 and 2-0 victories against the Republic of Ireland and France they have only shone in flashes this campaign.

Perhaps expectations are so high that beating Croatia with a late goal and being taken to penalties by Portugal are only misleading perceptions of weakness. Lest we forget Spain lost to Switzerland in their opening match of the 2010 World Cup, and they needed penalties to get past Italy four years ago, yet they still won both tournaments.

The fact is, however, that this Italy side is also very good. It is a different animal from the one that drew 1-1 with Spain because they have since recovered defender Andrea Barzagli and reverted to Prandelli's preferred 4-3-1-2 formation.

The 3-5-2 deployed against La Furia Roja in Gdansk, and Croatia in Poznan, withdrew too deeply in the second half. In its present iteration the Azzurri remain high up the pitch and pose more problems from an offensive perspective. They tend to get stronger as the match wears on, creating chances as the game becomes stretched and relying on their teak-tough defence to keep their rivals out.

As confident as you can be against such esteemed competition, I'm plumping for an Italy win, in a close-run match, with 1-0 9.617/2 or 2-1 17.5 attractive correct score bets and Allesandro Diamanti 16.5 to score last.

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