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Orient's woes at the back to continue at Stevenage
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Barnet's high xG number could lead to first half goals again
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Alan Dudman previews Sunday's latest round of fixtures with trebles at 25/126.00 and 14/115.00
Football... Only Bettor. Listen to Sunday's preview episode now.
League One
Luke Williams' impact at Peterborough cannot be underestimated with five wins from six (a draw in the other) and a hard fought 2-0 victory at Rotherham on New Year's Day.
Posh stood up well to a physical opponent and Williams is a very likeable guy, but arguably their toughest test over the festive period lies in wait, and another road game. And another physical and robust opponent lies in wait in Sincil Bank lair.
Four of the six games for Posh in the run highlighted have been Under 2.5 Goals but Lincoln are an excellent team at home with a superb defence with just 11 conceded and they've recently kept Cardiff and Huddersfield to a goal each - two of the more potent attacks in the third tier.
Back Lincoln and Under 2.5 Goals v Peterborough
Orient's season seems to be lurching from one disaster to another and last term's playoff finalists are now in 18th - a staggering position considering what a great team they were to watch just 12 months ago.
They conceded three on New Year's Day at home to Wimbledon and three prior at Luton. And another shoddy backline display on Sunday I suspect more pressure will be heading Richie Wellens' way.
Wellens is well ware too, judging by his recent post-match comments saying: "We're threadbare. We're really threadbare with the squad. I'm not making excuses. With this group players fit and available we're bang in trouble. We need people back fit and we need to make some new signings."
Stevenage, managed by former O Alex Revell have lost their way a little since topping the table and have failed to win in their last four, but Orient's squad problems on numbers and their away defence which has conceded 27 on the road, which is the worst in the division, must be opposed. And it pains me with the Orient.
Back Stevenage to win and Over 2.5 Goals v Orient
Luton have lost each of their last five league games played on a Sunday according to Opta stats, conceding 2+ goals in each. It's already their longest losing run on this day in the Football League and rather than go for or against the Hatters here, goals much be the way.
Donny themselves have conceded more (18) than they have scored (14) at the Keepmoat and four of their last five have netted easily for BTTS backers. They conceded four at Cardiff in mid-December, promptly followed by five shipped at home to Plymouth and four to Stockport.
Rovers look short in key areas for me and since the 7th October have kept just one clean sheet. Jack Wilshere is still serching for consistency, but goals are there and they hammered Wycombe and Orient previously to add to their superior goals at the Kenny and their home xG, but they will have chances here I am sure.
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League Two
I opposed Barnet on New Year's Day at home to Crawley as the Bees looked far too short at 4/71.57 and once again the market is swarming (sorry) all over them again. Typical they saved their best performance of the season (according to Dean Brennan) for that game, but Crawley got on the scoresheet in the 2-1 defeat and the first 20 minutes from the Bees was near electric. More of the same here please.
What to expect from Crewe is anyone's guess. They were dreadful at Newport losing 2-0, yet bounced back to score four past Cheltenham on New Year's Day.
It's twice they've failed to beat bottom club Newport, yet are a place above Barnet and neither would win any prize for consistency.
Barnet can boast the best xG in the division at 1.72, with a huge 1.91 at home. Crewe are a top eight xG team and average 1.7 goals per match so it's only right to go for one of my favourite recent bets with both to score in the first half.
Oldham have failed to win their opening away Football League game of a calendar year since beating Fleetwood 2-0 in January 2015, losing five of their seven such matches since then (D2).
Despite that stat from Opta, the Latics enjoyed a good Christmas and are unbeaten in five, but Bromley's home form is too strong to ignore with eight wins and no losses.
The column reads like a dizzying set of W's for Andy Woodman's team with six straight wins and the Ravens' fans have played their part with the new East Stand returning and the recent home success against Newport saw a record crowd of nearly 5000.
The hosts use wide areas well are a lot better than critics who say they are just a set-piece team. They had a tricky game against Newport but crosses in created the goals and they hit three past Bristol Rovers and Crawley in the recent run.
Back Bromley to beat Oldham
After losing the reverse fixture 1-0 in September, Notts County will be looking to avoid suffering a league double against Gillingham for the first time since 1998-99.
Neither are blessed with goals at the moment. The Magpies have scored just once in their four games heading into Sunday, and Gillingham have only scored more than one goal on one occasion in their last six and laboured to a 2-0 defeat at Swindon on New Year's Day.
Two wins in three months and a team that look well short on pace and are short of a goalscorer. I would have the Under 2.5 Goals maybe a little shorter here and with a hectic period catching up with a lot of teams, it's hard to see how Gillingham can score more than one, let alone two.
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