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Alan Dudman has two big price trebles this weekend
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League One
Lincoln have lost just five of their opening 25 League One games so far this season, their fewest at this stage of a third tier campaign since 1951-52 when they were eventually promoted from the Third Division North.
It's hard to see the Imps losing this one as their high-intensity game can be too much for most and they usually out-press and out-run their opponents.
Luton are often a little shorter than they should be in the betting but they have seven wins at home so far, and while Lincoln have scored 23 at home and 14 away (conceded 13 on the road) I like the idea of the draw here, plus playing in the Match Odds 90 market eliminates any last-minute surprises.
Back the draw in Match Odds 90 mins
Mansfield are more than happy to concede possession and their remarkable 3-4 win in the FA Cup over Sheffield United from the Championship saw them have just 20% of the ball.
They did the same at Bolton with the possession stats to win 0-1, but they have lost four at home and I worry that the exertions of the Sheffield United game had an impact. They've had a week to get over it, but prior to their recent winning run, they have never been the most consistent and have lost four at home.
After winning the reverse fixture 2-1 in September last year, Port Vale will be looking to claim a first league double over Mansfield Town since the 2002-03 season, and the hopes lie with Job Brady in turning this around. His desire for them to be more aggressive worked with the 5-1 against Blackpool, so let's see if the Brady bunch can do it again.
It's a risky one clearly, but the 23/103.30 price on the win is worth the outside punt.
Another outside punt here with Burton, and even bigger at 29/103.90 against a Huddersfield team that have been defeated seven times on the road, and that is a mile away from any promotion form.
Indeed, manager Lee Grant said his players lack bravery on the road - evident at Stockport in a game they created precious few chances.
Burton's home form has been slightly better and that's the reason to take on a poor price for Huddersfield. Burton collected a big win against Northampton on Boxing Day and earned a creditable point against Wycombe.
The Terriers lost their last away league game against Burton Albion 3-0 in April 2025, not losing by a bigger margin away from home since then (15 games).
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League Two
I'm with my goal chums here Chesterfield - a team high on entertainment stakes this term with F23 home and F19 away making them one of the leading scorers in the second tier.
They recently got two at MK Dons and from their last 15 matches - 10 have hit the BTTS target.
Bromley continue to excel and have reached a nirvana at the top of the table - and the last time they failed to score away from home was back in September and in Michael Cheek, once again they have a man in form who scored a recent hat-trick in a goal blitz at Crawley.
They've got a fair xG on the road this term at 1.46.
Andy Woodman's team have netted 24 goals from set piece situations in League Two this season, the most of any side in the competition and four more than they've scored from open play (20) and with that in mind, I like the first-half bet here and we tend to get a decent price on goals in 45 minutes.
In the chocolate box of League Two football, Gillingham have given up the luxurious peppermint creams for the marzipan, as they cannot stop drawing games.
It's an astonishing run; seven stalemates in nine and while Newport County have won six of their last seven league games against Gillingham (L1), conceding multiple goals in just one of those matches, this doesn't look one blessed with goals.
Backing the draw and Under 2.5 Goals is exactly the same price as the Under 3.5 Goals, so it makes sense with the extra goal insurance to play this bet and Newport, while poor, have been a little better on the road with three wins and two draws, but they don't score many (13).
Back the draw and Under 3.5 Goals
This looks a race for the most disappointing side of the season. Crawley under Scott Lindsey had high hopes with his return after flopping in Milton Keynes, but they are winless across their last four league games (D2 L2), last enduring a longer run without victory between November and December 2024 (five games).
Crawley are coming into this off the back of three straight losses, so not ideal prep and they are not an obvious bet. However, there were encouraging signs against the league leaders Bromley recently in a 1-3 loss. They created a few chances and had over 60% possession.
Notts County are way off the boil and a recent defeat against lowly Accrington might increase the pressure on Martin Paterson.
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