England v Greece Bet Builder tips: How to profit from Bukayo Saka's foul drawing expertise with 16/5 shot

• Saka draws 2.06 fouls per 90 for club & country

• Tsimikas in line for a busy evening

• Numbers screaming Greek yellow cards

England vs Greece
Thursday 10 October
Live on ITV1

Saka v Tsimikas rates as a path to profit

When searching for value across the prop markets involving a game where Bukayo Saka is involved my eyes are always drawn to the opposition left-back. What kind of defender is he? Has he faced Saka before? And, most importantly, what is the data telling me surrounding his fouls committed averages?

Liverpool defender Kostas Tsimikas is likely to be the man tasked with facing the slick Saka and it's an area us as punters have a good handle on for predicting the likely foul action served up.

Tsimikas is an aggressive defender. Some may call him rash.

Much of those labels come from the eye test as he does like to engage and press aggressively - an obvious trait in a player that is signed by Jurgen Klopp. But the data stands up too. Since signing for the Reds in 2020, he averages 1.67 fouls committed per 90 across all competitions and makes 2.3 tackles per 90. A healthy output.

He's lined up directly against Saka twice in that period in Liverpool v Arsenal battles and he committed a foul on the winger in each game whilst making six tackles in total.

These aren't surprising numbers. Saka is a full-back's nightmare and is constantly asking them questions in one-on-one situations.

For England, the Arsenal man has been fouled 31 times in his last 15 starts working at an average of 2.06 fouls won per 90. This is exceptionally reliable and forthright data as since the start of the 22/23 season for Arsenal, Saka has also drawn, wait for it, exactly 2.06 fouls per game across all competitions.

Tsimikas is 5/42.25 with the Betfair Sportsbook to make two or fouls in the match - that implies a probability of 44 per cent which looks too low based on the numbers discussed above. I'd certainly have it closer to 50 per cent.

Saka has been fouled two or more times in 11 in his last 15 international starts, so at the prices the Greek defender is worth chancing to keep up that strong record for punters when it comes to Saka's opposite number making fouls.

Cards to fly in competitive clash

Give football people league standings, the chance for promotion and relegation and a pathway to qualification for a major tournament, you'll find the competitive juices flow much faster.

The Nations League has been a smart way of adding a competitive edge to what was a very stale international friendly calendar for the most part.

This added competitive edge mixed with playing England at Wembley should lead to a game played at an unfriendly-like environment.

The Greeks, fresh from two wins from two in the Nations League, should be motivated to make this a test for England and are backed to play in an aggressive manner. This brings their chances of yellow cards to the table for a Bet Builder.

If you eliminate no-hopers Gibraltar from their last set of Nations League and European Championship qualifiers, Greece are working at a bulky average of 3.56 yellow cards shown per game from a sample size of 10 matches.

They have been shown three or more cards in nine of those 10 encounters and the four or more yellow card line has landed in 50 per cent of that run of fixtures.

England are full of card drawing ball carriers like Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Jack Grealish and Anthony Gordon, which could test the discipline of the Greeks. All this makes the 19/201.95 on offer for over 2.5 Greece cards look appealing and even the over 3.5 cards line at 27/103.70 is worth a second look for punters feeling a little braver than me.

Adding the over 2.5 cards line to Tsimikas to make two or more fouls in the game gets us to a 16/54.20 shot through the Bet Builder, which is certainly worth a bash.

Now read Ste Tudor's England v Greece piece with four players to back!