The Daily Acca: Brighton to kick off this 5/1 shot

Seagulls to beat the Seasiders

Bet 1: Back Brighton @ 4/9 - KO 15:00 GMT

It's the fourth round of the FA Cup and I think that 4/9 is just too big a price for a Premier League side to win at home against a side who are 16th in League Two.

Graham Potter fielded a relatively strong line-up for their third round tie at Newport, and while they needed penalties to get the job done, that was away from home, on a bad pitch against a club that have a good recent history of upsets.

Today they welcome Blackpool to the Amex, and although we should mention that the Tangerines knocked West Brom out in the last round, they were at home, and the Baggies were really struggling at that point.

Their record on the road isn't great - just three wins from 12 in League One this season, with six of the other nine ending in defeat.

Tight game expected at Loftus Road

Bet 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals in QPR v Derby @ 3/4 - KO 15:00 GMT

QPR are up to 17th in the Championship courtesy of two wins from their last two outings. Both of those wins were to nil (2-0 and 1-0), and both were away from home.

Mark Warburton's side are back at Loftus Road this afternoon, and they welcome a Derby team who put three defeats behind them to beat Bournemouth on Tuesday.

Wayne Rooney's men kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 home win, and eight of their 11 away from Pride Park have also seen Under 2.5 backers collect this term. It's also worth noting that QPR's last three at home have followed suit.

No respite for Bruce at old club

Bet 3: Back Aston Villa -1 Goal @ 11/8 - KO 20:00 GMT

Look away now Newcastle supporters (if you haven't already done so), as I can't see any respite for you at Villa Park this evening.

Steve Bruce is under plenty of pressure, as at least while he was delivering results, his negative tactics could be forgiven.

The Magpies haven't won since a 2-1 success over West Brom on December 12th, and since then it's been seven defeats, two draws and just four goals scored.

Villa have actually lost their last three in all competitions, but one of those was their youth team in the cup, and the other two were narrow losses against the two Manchester clubs.

Dean Smith's men put some indifferent home results behind them by thrashing Crystal Palace last time (Boxing Day), and I expect the hosts to win by two or three in this one.