Copa America Tips: Venezuela value to claim third win

• Ecuador likelier than Mexico to progress

• Venezuela will win group with third win

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Mexico v Ecuador (Monday, 01:00)

Mexico and Ecuador both go into their Group B clash with three points on the board.

They have both been beaten by the group leaders Venezuela and won their games against Jamaica, but it has been Ecuador that have shown more of a cutting edge in their games.

They were a goal up against Venezuela, but having been reduced to 10-men, eventually lost 2-1. Ecuador then won 3-1 against Jamaica, thanks to an own goal from Kasey Palmer, followed by strikes from Kendry Paez and Alan Minda.

It is Ecuador that have the superior goal difference and are second in the Group B table, meaning that they only need a draw to make the quarter-finals.

Mexico require a win, but they have lost six of their last seven games against South American opponents and have only scored once in this tournament.

After a 1-0 win against Jamaica, they lost 1-0 to Venezuela. Having been wasteful in front of goal so far, this looks destined to be another close game.

On the evidence of the tournament so far, Ecuador would seem to be the likelier winners, but as they only need a draw, it is sensible to be cautious. Back Ecuador draw no bet at 4/51.80.

Jamaica v Venezuela (Monday 01:00)

Meanwhile, Venezuela just need a point against Jamaica to win Group B.

Considering that would likely mean avoiding Argentina in the quarter-finals, that's a strong motivation for the Venezuelans and they are up against a Jamaican side that are already eliminated.

Jamaica came into this tournament having lost all of their previous six matches at the Copa America and they have subsequently lost their two games at the 2024 edition.

They have at least ended their run of not scoring in this competition, with Michail Antonio netting in the 3-1 loss to Ecuador.

Nevertheless, a ninth straight Copa America defeat seems likely. Venezuela's results have been seen as something of a surprise, but if we delve into the stats, it's perhaps not all that much of a shock.

Since Fernando Batista was appointed as manager, only Colombia (twice) and Italy have beaten them in 15 games (W7 D5 L3). In another group they might have struggled to make progress, but this one always looked fairly open.

Considering Venezuela's form and their extra motivation in this fixture, it's pleasing to find La Vinotinto available at quite a chunky price to win this match. You can back a Venezuela victory at 10/111.91, which is big enough to not be tempted into making things more complicated.

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