Club World Cup Top Scorer Tips: From Mbappe to win outright to 100/1 E/W punt

• Mbappe comes out top among the favourites

• Man City stars past and present compete at 22/123.00

• South American veteran an each-way shout

• Read our Ulitmate Guide to FIFA Club World Cup 25

On Saturday 14 June - or at 1am Sunday 15 June for UK viewers - at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, the FIFA Club World Cup 25 commences, the revamped, expanded tournament featuring elite clubs from every corner of the globe.

Naturally, our first thought concerns who might win this fascinating experiment of a competition but in its slipstream we then consider which individual might out-fire their peers and take the personal glory of being the top goal-scorer.

Will it be an established superstar, bossing the big stages like he's supposed to? Or will a Toto Schillaci or Oleg Salenko emerge, have the month of their lives, and inevitably find themselves linked with Arsenal later this summer?

The field is full of deadly practitioners at putting the ball in the onion bag but let's start with the favourites, and a World Cup Golden Boot winner who can be ruled out through no fault of his own....

'Group of Death' lessens Kane threat

After finally securing some meaningful silverware, Harry Kane heads to America in fine fettle, but Bayern being placed in this summer's 'Group of Death' diminishes his top-goalscorer chances significantly.

Granted, he could conceivably fill his boots against Auckland in Bayern's opening fixture, but Boca Juniors and Benfica will severely limit opportunities.

The former have kept clean sheets in exactly half of their Torneo Apertura commitments to date.

If Kanes fires a blank against Auckland his 8/19.00 price will quickly look very unappealing.

Favourite among the favourites

Erling Haaland faces an easier time of it, though Juventus will be a tough nut to crack in Group G. Moreover, the Striking Viking took on only two non-penalty shots on target in his concluding four Premier League games as he recovered from a long-standing ankle problem. Even so, Haaland is 13/27.50 to top the rest and should never be dismissed outright.

Yet still it's Kylian Mbappe who stands out here, with all three of Real's group opponents winnable, and arguably thrashable. The most recent World Cup Golden Boot winner bagged nine La Liga goals in his last five outings.

Details to consider

Whether it's a strongly backed goal-machine or an outsider fancied to come good there are three key details to consider when selecting a potential top goal-scorer.

• So often Golden Boot winners - or their equivalents - fire a brace or a hat-trick in the group stage, giving themselves a great platform. Look out therefore for mismatches early doors.
• The last World Cup Golden Boot winner whose team didn't reach the quarter finals or beyond was Russia's Salenko in 1994. Consider the team as much as the player.
• The average haul of the 10 last World Cup Golden Boot winners is six goals. With this tournament mirroring its international version in structure that is the target to aim for.  

Mid-range picks

Can Atletico Madrid's Alexander Sorloth convert six or more? Remarkably, the imposing Norwegian has topped that tally in his last 222 minutes of club football, claiming a hat-trick vs Girona soon after blasting four past Real Sociedad.

If this screams form a recent spike in shots on target corroborates. From the start of February to early April, the forward took on a SOT every 68 minutes. That has plummeted to a shot on target every 22 minutes in his eight games since.

Sorloth is priced at 18/119.00 and the same goes for Vinicius Junior who can surely be relied upon to torment the defences of Al-Hilal, Pachuca and Red Bull Salzburg.

Yet what is off-putting is a recent decline in goals from the Brazilian winger, just four in his last 25 for Real compared to 16 in his previous 25 outings. Having played 64 games for club and country in the last calendar year, he looks to be in need of a serious rest.

Elsewhere at the mid-range mark we find a fascinating head-to-head between a former Manchester City star, and the player they bought to replace him.

Both Julian Alvarez and Omar Marmoush are 22/123.00 to out-score the rest of the field and there is little to separate them in their 2024/25 stats.

The Argentine has converted every 127.7 minutes going back to last August, Marmoush every 129.4 minutes.

Long shots

The beauty and curse of any top goal-scorer market is the possibility of a complete outsider igniting on cue. Last summer's Euros is a case in point, with Georgia's Georges Mikautadze sharing the honour despite being largely overlooked beforehand. It can happen.

Which brings us to the 37-year-old veteran German Cano who has been a consistent - sometimes prolific - finisher in South America for nigh-on two decades now. The Argentine has scored 14 in 23 in his season to date.

Furthermore, his Fluminense side are well fancied to go semi-deep this summer, with Borussia Dortmund their only serious competition in Group F and then either Inter Milan or River Plate awaiting in the last 16. The Tricolor are a good shout at 5/23.50 to reach the quarter final stage.

Cano incidentally is 5/23.50 to finish as his team's top goalscorer. Get on that.

Elsewhere, Benfica's Vangelis Pavlidis seriously tempts each-way at 60/161.00.

The Greek international grabbed the headlines in January with a hat-trick against Barcelona in the Champions League while in the Primeira Liga he has been on fire for several months, scoring 15 in his last 15.

Like Kane though, an extremely tough group might mean chances are at a premium.

Now read Mike Norman's Ultimate Guide to the FIFA Club World Cup here