Midweek Championship Opta Stats: The best bets for Tuesday and Wednesday

Norwich vs Middlesbrough

Terrific Spectacle in East Anglia

The Opta Stat:

"Norwich have lost their last two league games against Middlesbrough, conceding seven goals in those defeats..."

Norwich squandered a two goal lead to Leeds at the weekend and they have a chance to make amends for that defeat on Tuesday night.

Unfortunately, in-form Middlesbrough are the visitors with Michael Carrick's side currently full of confidence. Across the last five matches, only four sides have chalked up a better xG than Boro and they should be able to contribute to a thoroughly entertaining spectacle.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 3/41.75

Leicester vs Sunderland

Classy Foxes to ease to victory

The Opta Stat:

"Leicester have won their last three home league games without conceding a goal - the Foxes last had a four-game winning run without conceding on home soil in November/December 1973"

Leicester continue to go from strength to strength and they were deserved winners at the weekend. They've scored eight times across their last three outings and have produced decent xG numbers too.

Sunderland lost to Stoke at the weekend but they probably should have taken at least a point from that game. They are better on the road, but this will be their toughest away trip of the season.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Leicester to Win and Over 1.5 Goals at 8/111.73

Swansea vs Watford

In-form Swans to shake off their weekend defeat

The Opta Stat:

"Watford are winless in their last 14 away league matches (D6 L8), their worst away winless run since going 16 without victory between October 2009 and April 2010"

Although Swansea don't have a particularly great record in midweek games, they are undoubtedly one of the division's in-form sides. Under Michael Duff, they are creating chances and we should probably draw a line through their latest defeat to leaders Leicester.

Watford have scored just four goals in their last five matches with just one of those strikes coming away from Vicarage Road. The Hornets cannot be trusted on their travels.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Swansea to Win at 11/102.11

Millwall vs Blackburn

Tight encounter at the Den

The Opta Stat:

"Millwall have picked up just seven points in their last eight home league matches (W2 D1 L5). The Lions have suffered seven home league defeats in 2023, their most since 2015 (11)"

Millwall have been incredibly inconsistent this season and they produced a fairly average performance at the weekend.

Blackburn have tightened up at the back and JDT was delighted with his side's second consecutive clean sheet against QPR. There is unlikely to be much between these two sides, however, Rovers have shown a little more adventure going forward.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Blackburn Draw No Bet at 1/12.00

Huddersfield vs Cardiff

Terriers and Bluebirds to share the spoils

The Opta Stats:

"Huddersfield Town have won just one of their last 10 league matches played on Tuesdays (D5 L4), a 2-1 away win at QPR in November 2022"

"Cardiff have won just one of their last eight away league games in Yorkshire (D1 L6), beating Rotherham United in April last season"

Neither side have been completely convincing lately. Huddersfield have been hard to beat under Darren Moore, but they lack a bit of X-factor. Defender Michal Helik is their joint-top goalscorer (3) which suggests that there could be a lack of firepower in their squad.

Cardiff have scored just four times in their last five outings and haven't been helped by injuries to key attacking players.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Draw in Huddersfield vs Cardiff at 17/102.70

West Brom vs QPR

Baggies to edge past hapless visitors

The Opta Stat:

"West Brom have won their last four league games played on Tuesdays, all without conceding. They'd only won four of their previous 21 Tuesday matches (D7 L10)"

West Brom haven't conceded a home goal since September 2nd, however, Carlos Corberan's side have also struggled to find the back of the net. Even without John Swift, they should be able to sneak past QPR's defence.

The visitors have been poor recently and Gareth Ainsworth is feeling the pressure.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back West Brom to Win and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/42.25

Plymouth vs Sheffield Wednesday

Owls to take a point back to South Yorkshire

The Opta Stat:

"Plymouth Argyle have lost their last two home league games - the Pilgrims haven't suffered three home defeats in a row since April/May 2021 under Ryan Lowe"

Plymouth are not firing on all cylinders and they have netted just twice across their last four matches. They come up against a Sheffield Wednesday side who are acclimatising to a change of management.

The Owls may have lost to Watford at the weekend, however, they looked a little more organised and they attacked with a little more purpose. A well-coached Wednesday could make life difficult for the misfiring hosts.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Under 2.5 Goals at [Evens]

Bristol City vs Ipswich

Tractor Boys to potentially edge a tight contest

The Opta Stat:

"Under Kieran McKenna, Ipswich Town haven't lost a single league game that's been played between Monday and Friday (P24 W17 D7)"

Ipswich didn't play at the weekend and the Suffolk outfit will be raring to go on Wednesday night. As a result, they could be fitter than their opponents. They're yet to lose on the road this season, although all of their matches have been extremely tight.

Bristol City snatched a 1-0 victory from Coventry at the weekend despite coming under plenty of pressure from the Sky Blues. The visitors hit the woodwork twice, however, Ipswich aren't likely to be quite so wasteful.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Ipswich to Win or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/61.84

Birmingham vs Hull

Rooney to witness his first Blues goal

The Opta Stat:

"Birmingham City are unbeaten in their first six home league games this season (W4 D2), their best unbeaten start at home since 2018-19 (first 10 games)"

Birmingham were poor against Middlesbrough at the weekend, but they may benefit from being back at St. Andrews on Wednesday. Hull have won just one of their last seven and they've conceded the first goal in each of their last four.

Liam Rosenior and Wayne Rooney were alongside one another at Derby, so these two former workmates could easily exchange blows in the West Midlands.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Both Teams to Score at 4/51.80

Stoke vs Leeds

Whites to strike again on the road

The Opta Stat:

"Leeds have won four of their last seven league visits to Stoke (D1 L2), having lost eight of their 10 visits before this run (W2)"

Leeds completed a 3-2 comeback at the weekend and were excellent going forward. The fact that Daniel Farke was able to deploy Patrick Bamford and Willy Gnonto from the bench underlines the strength-in-depth available to the former Norwich boss.

Stoke were lucky to take all three points against Sunderland and with an xG of just 2.2 across their last three matches, they probably aren't producing enough clearcut chances to trouble the in-form visitors.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Over 1.5 Leeds Goals at 17/201.85

Preston vs Southampton

Saints to collect another three points on the road

The Opta Stat:

"This is the first league meeting between Preston and Southampton since 2008-09, with the Saints winning both games that season"

It's been a long time since these sides met, however, Southampton look likely to continue their dominance in this fixture. They've been back to their creative best in recent weeks and deserved to sneak past Hull at the weekend.

Preston's early-season form has tailed off somewhat with the Lilywhites having conceded 12 times across their last four matches. Admittedly, it's been a tough run for PNE, yet this doesn't appear to be much easier than their previous assignments.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Over 1.5 Southampton Goals at 19/201.95

Rotherham vs Coventry

BTTS at the NYS

The Opta Stat:

"Rotherham United have won just one of their last 18 league games against City sides (D5 L12), a 2-1 win over Norwich City in September"

Rotherham are struggling and their xG stats do not make particularly enjoyable reading. Nevertheless, they have become tough to beat at home and both Leicester and Bristol City required late winners to squeeze past Matt Taylor's men.

Coventry have won just three times this season and Mark Robins has been criticised for his slow in-game changes. I can't trust the Sky Blues this time around, but I think they can play their part in an entertaining contest.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Both Teams to Score at 8/111.73