Leeds United v Millwall: Back hosts to continue Championship title charge with EVS play

• Leeds can go top if they win by two or more goals

• Millwall have conceded 2 goals from 53 shots in their last four games

• Leeds have won 14 of their last 15 homes games

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Leeds v Millwall
Sunday, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Leeds United will end the weekend top of the Championship if they win this game on Sunday afternoon by two or more goals. Drink that in Leeds fans. It seemed an impossible task as we entered the New Year with Daniel Farke's side a whopping 17 points off Leicester, but their relentless good form coupled with a Foxes wobble gives them this massive opportunity to stake a claim for the title.

Teams	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	PTS	xGF	xGA	xGD	EXP	FCST
1 Coventry	46	28	11	7	97	45	95	0	0	0
2 Ipswich	46	23	15	8	80	47	84	0	0	0
3 Millwall	48	24	11	11	64	49	83	0	0	0
4 Southampton	48	22	14	10	82	56	80	0	0	0
5 Middlesbrough	49	22	14	10	72	47	80	0	0	0
6 Hull	49	21	10	15	70	66	73	0	0	0
7 Wrexham	46	19	14	13	69	65	71	0	0	0
8 Derby	46	20	9	17	67	59	69	0	0	0
9 Norwich	46	19	8	19	63	56	65	0	0	0
10 Birmingham	46	17	13	16	57	56	64	0	0	0
11 Swansea	46	18	10	18	57	59	64	0	0	0
12 Bristol C	46	17	11	18	59	59	62	0	0	0
13 Sheff Utd	46	18	6	22	66	66	60	0	0	0
14 Preston	46	15	15	16	55	62	60	0	0	0
15 QPR	46	16	10	20	61	73	58	0	0	0
16 Watford	46	14	15	17	53	65	57	0	0	0
17 Stoke	46	15	10	21	51	56	55	0	0	0
18 Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	49	64	55	0	0	0
19 Charlton	46	13	14	19	44	58	53	0	0	0
20 Blackburn	46	13	13	20	42	56	52	0	0	0
21 West Brom	46	13	14	19	48	58	51	0	0	0
22 Oxford	46	11	14	21	45	59	47	0	0	0
23 Leicester	46	12	16	18	58	68	46	0	0	0
24 Sheff Wed	46	2	12	32	29	89	0	0	0	0

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In truth, it's Leicester's FA Cup game against Chelsea which gives Leeds the opportunity to move top, but Leeds will be desperate to use this home game to pile the pressure onto Enzo Maresca's side, who next face a Bristol City team who've made a habit of making life difficult for the best in the Championship.

For Millwall this is something of a free hit. The re-appointment of Neil Harris looks like a masterstroke, with three wins and a draw from his four games in charge, lifting them from imminent relegation towards mid-table. They won't expect to get anything from this, but will be desperate to continue their good form and burst Leeds' bubble.

First we have to look at whether Millwall's recent upturn in form is sustainable. They've scored five goals in this time, two from unlikely source Japhet Tanganga from set-pieces. Zian Flemming also has two, one a penalty and the other a 30-yard free-kick which should have been a cosy save for the goalkeeper. So Michael Obafemi's strike at Blackburn is their only open-play goal since Harris returned. Maybe a red flag.

They've only conceded two goals in this time, but these have come from 53 total shots and an xG of 3.83 according to Opta. They've lost the xG battle in each of these four games and, while game state will play a part in that given how often they've been ahead, but this is painting a picture that the good defensive might not be built on the soundest foundations. Maybe another red flag.

For Leeds, their home form is phenomenally strong. Since drawing their first three home games of the season they've only dropped two points at Elland Road, when drawing 1-1 with Coventry in December. They're 3/10 to win this game which is unbackable for most of us, but that doesn't mean we can't find an angle to side with the home team.

If we look specifically at Leeds' home games against those currently beneath Millwall in 16th, they've kept a clean sheet in five of the seven. The two games that they conceded in were the 4-1 and 2-1 wins over Huddersfield and Plymouth, but both of these games came early in the season when Leeds were still finding their feet back in the Championship.

In 2024 they've won their three home games against relegation threatened sides by an aggregate score of 7-0, and look well set to add to that tally on Sunday. With doubts over the sustainability of Millwall's form, the Evs about Leeds to win to nil looks a great way to play this tie.

Now read our Manchester United v Liverpool preview here!