A Midlands derby takes centre-stage on Friday night as Coventry welcome Birmingham to the CBS Arena. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing the Sky Blues to take top honours.
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Coventry remain strong at the CBS Arena
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Birmingham unravelling under Rooney
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Sky Blues appeal in odds-against offering
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Coventry 1.748/11 boss Mark Robins accused his players of being too "timid" following their 2-1 weekend defeat at high-flying Ipswich. The Sky Blues trailed 2-0 at the break and spurned the opportunity to get themselves back into the match when substitute Matty Godden missed a penalty before a late consolation own goal from Brandon Williams.
With key centre-back Kyle McFadzean unavailable, Robins opted to move away from his preferred 4-3-3 system to 4-2-3-1 in order to match Ipswich, but the experiment was abandoned at the interval with Yasin Ayari, Josh Eccles and Jamie Allen all hooked at half-time.
Speaking post-match, Robins said: "We were OK but it's one of those games that we have to learn from. There's a couple of moments we get it clearly wrong. If we'd have stayed in the game for longer rather than conceding so early it might have been different. We just looked like we were a little bit timid at times - we need to be a bit more ruthless."
Birmingham 5.409/2 chief Wayne Rooney told some of his players to 'grow a pair of balls' in a furious press conference following Blues' drab 0-0 draw at home to struggling Rotherham. The Second City club produced an insipid display in front of owner Tom Wagner and investor Tom Brady with a series of defensive blunders almost leading to defeat.
Since Rooney replaced John Eustace in October, Birmingham have W1-D2-L5 from eight Championship encounters, putting Blues bottom of the eight-game form table. The former Derby and DC United manager has grown tired of his players not translating their encouraging training ground performances onto the pitch.
Rooney said, "I think some players need to grow a pair of balls, because I'm watching what they do in training and the minute there is fans out there they become a different player. We can't control the ball; we can't pass the ball to one another. We aren't aggressive enough. We were fortunate to come away with a draw - we have to be happy with a point."
Despite languishing down in 17th, Coventry are well-liked by the market. Mark Robins' men are rated as a top-half team across all the major performance data metrics with the Sky Blues even perched as high as sixth on Expected Points (xP) this season. City also boast a top-six position when viewing Expected Goals (xG) process, a 60% xG ratio return.
Coventry have suffered a solitary home defeat this season (W3-D5-L1), continuing an impressive theme from last term. Go back to the beginning of 2022/23 and the Sky Blues have posted W14-D12-L6 in front of their home supporters, a run of results that includes a 2-0 triumph over Birmingham, and I'm happy to support a similar outcome on Friday.
Coventry to win and Under 3.5 Goals pays 6/52.20 on the Sportsbook - a much more appetising practice than backing the Sky Blues at 1.748/11. Only eight of their 19 outings have featured three goals or more with only one of their nine CBS Arena outings breaking the Over 3.5 Goals barrier.
Birmingham are rock-bottom of the actual eight-game form table under Wayne Rooney, as well as the Expected Points (xP) rankings over the past eight rounds of action. Blues have managed just a 32% Expected Goals (xG) ratio in that same sample, whilst returning a wretched -1 xG supremacy figure on average in each encounter.
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