George Elek from Not The Top 20 is back and has found a Bet Builder for Saturday's early Championship kick-off that sides with promotion chasing Ipswich...
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Cardiff have lost five of six home games against top 10
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Ipswich have won seven away games to nil
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O4.5 corners have landed in five of six Town away games in 2024
Cardiff v Ipswich
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
It'll be all eyes on Hillsborough for Ipswich fans on Friday night, with the result of Leeds' short trip to Sheffield Wednesday just as important for their promotion hopes as their own televised lunchtime kick-off on Saturday at lunchtime.
Kieran McKenna's side survived a midweek scare when seeing off Bristol City by a 3-2 scoreline, having been behind twice and missing a late penalty at 2-2, before Leif Davis' strike sent the home fans from despair to delirium.
They'll have to put in consistently better performances than that if they are to return to the Premier League, but will see this as a must-win game to both keep Leeds at bay and pile on the pressure on the faltering Foxes at the top of the tree.
For Cardiff, a win here will get fans wondering if a play-off berth could be more than just a pipedream. They were looking over their shoulders at relegation after a run of four points from seven games, but three wins in a row have Erol Bulut's side in the warm, safe embrace of 10th, and a seven point gap to 6th isn't totally insurmountable.
Despite the home side's good form, there is just a quality gap between these two sides which should see Ipswich justify their short price. Cardiff have played six of those who currently sit above them at home, and have lost to five of them. The only exception was Coventry, who they beat in September during a poor start to the season for Mark Robins' side. Ipswich have won their last three away games and should make that four here.
This effectively makes the best 'Ipswich to win to nil' something that has already copped seven times in their away games this season. Given that they've won 10 games on the road in total, it shows just how important a solid defensive foundation has been to their points haul on their travels.
Cardiff might be unbeaten in four games, winning the last three, but according to Fotmob the total xG for in that time is a paltry 2.14. This game pits a toothless attack against a stubborn defence and it's hard to see Cardiff causing them too many problems.
The Tractor Boys are always a good side to follow in a hunt for corners, with their relentlessly attacking nature meaning they continue to press on even when ahead, so a high corner count isn't reliant on game-state.
In 2024 Ipswich's away corner counts have hit 5, 8, 3, 5, 6 and 7. Given that they've taken 14 points from these games, the evidence is compelling that Ipswich can both win the game and hit the five or more corners needed for this bet builder to cop.
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