Sporting Lisbon v Arsenal: Back 13/8 Viktor Gyokeres to haunt former club

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Are Arsenal wobbling at the worst possible time?

Arsenal trading at 1.182/11 to qualify tells you everything about how this tie is expected to over two legs. Sporting Lisbon at 6.25/1 are being given a puncher's chance at best. On paper, this is a mismatch.

But football isn't played on paper or spreadsheets and Arsenal arrive in Lisbon with a few questions swirling that the market might just be brushing aside a little too quickly.

Back-to-back defeats has completely changed the narrative on Mikel Arteta's men. The quadruple is gone. The treble is gone. It's now double or Arteta should quit.

Losing a Carabao Cup final to Manchester City is no disgrace. Being knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton? That's a different conversation. I was there at St Mary's covering the game and Arsenal were exactly what you don't want to be in knockout football: safe, predictable and lacking any real incision in the final third.

They dominated territory without ever really threatening.

And that's the concern heading into a hostile first leg in Lisbon. This is a team being priced as the favourites to win the Champions League, hovering around the 3.814/5 mark, yet their most recent performances don't quite match that billing.

Sporting Lisbon, meanwhile, will absolutely relish this.

At home, under the lights, first leg - this is their moment to make the tie uncomfortable. They don't need to win the tie in 90 minutes, they just need to give themselves something to take to The Emirates.

Expect them to play with far more freedom than their opponents. Also, Sporting are well-drilled, aggressive in midfield and capable of springing forward quickly. If Arsenal continue to recycle possession without purpose, they'll play straight into the home side's hands.

Arsenal's outright qualification price looks about right, they should have too much over two legs. But that doesn't mean they breeze through this first leg.

The value could lie in opposing the idea of an Arsenal win.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is much tighter than the market expects and backing the Gunners to win the game at 1.774/5 makes no appeal whatsoever. It's a temping lay on the Exchange. 

Sporting carry a threat. One that can ask Arsenal's defence some serious questions. Southampton really wobbled the Gunners right across their back four on Saturday and the influential Gabriel Magalhaes looks a major doubt after hobbling off at St Mary's.

At home across the Portuguese league and the Champions League, Sporting have averaged 3.1 goals per game this season, including beating PSG 2-1 as they've won five from five in this competition in Lisbon.

The market isn't that confident of Sporting adding to the scoring which does surprise me slightly as we're able to get 1.9520/21 on both teams scoring. That's a bet.

The case of the ex 

Champions League knockouts are exactly the type of environment where individuals have to step up and make the difference. And that's exactly what Arsenal brought Viktor Gyokeres to do. Deliver on the big stage.

Signed from Sporting in the summer after an extraordinary spell that delivered 97 goals in 102 appearances for the Lions, Gyokeres returns to Lisbon with a point to prove. Players don't need extra motivation at this level, but facing your former club under the lights in a Champions League quarter-final? That's about as sharp as it gets.

More importantly, he's arriving in form.

Five goals in his last three games for club and country suggests he's hitting top gear at exactly the right time of the season. Confidence for a striker is everything and right now he looks like a player who expects to score every time he steps onto the pitch. The swiftness he took his only chance in the defeat at Southampton certainly carried the look of a striker in a very ruthless rhythm in front of goal.

Gyokeres has that blend of physicality and directness that can unsettle defences, even well-organised ones. And with Sporting likely to defend deep at times, his ability to find space in the box and finish efficiently becomes even more valuable.

At 13/82.63 to score anytime, that looks like a price worth getting involved in.

Arsenal should still take control of this tie across the two legs - the 1.182/11 suggests as much. But if they're to put one foot in the semi-finals here, don't be surprised if it's their former Sporting star who comes back to haunt his old club.

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