RB Leipzig v Man City Tips: Back Haaland to score but draw appeals

• Leipzig defeated Man City in the Red Bull Arena last season and are hard to beat so the draw appeals at 4.03/1

• Erling Haaland has a brilliant record against Leipzig and can open the scoring at 4.216/5

• Haaland and Timo Werner can combine in a Bet Builder at 7.26/1

• How to get money back as a free bet if both teams fail to score

Leipzig have lost just once in 20 games

RB Leipzig were expected to make the knockout phase when the draw was made for the Champions League group stages.

But the Germans suffered a horror start, losing 4-1 at home to Shakhtar before a less surprising 2-0 defeat away to Real Madrid.

Those reversals came in a big September wobble that saw them lose four times in five matches following a pair of domestic defeats either side of those European ties.

But since the start of October it's been a very different story. Leipzig have played 20 matches, winning 15, drawing four and losing just once. That came in a 2-1 defeat to second-placed Union Berlin two weekends ago.

That spate of victories included four straight wins in the Champions League which thrust them from bottom of the group to second. They beat Celtic home and away, defeated Real Madrid 3-2 and then cruised past Shakhtar 4-0.

They warmed up for this last 16, first leg clash with a 3-0 success at Wolfsburg. While their haul of 39 points is only good enough for fifth spot in the Bundesliga, it's tight at the top and they're just four behind leaders Bayern Munich.

City haven't been convincing on the road

Due to the quirks of the fixture list, Wednesday night's clash in Germany will be the third match in a run of five straight away games for Manchester City.

That lengthy spell away from East Manchester started with what seemed a hugely significant result in the Premier League as they ran out 3-1 winners at Arsenal thanks to goals from Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland.

The victory temporarily put them top of the table for the first time since November but they ended last weekend back in second place after somehow failing to kill off Nottingham Forest in a 1-1 draw at the City Ground.

That added to a rather mixed away record for Pep Guardiola's men. In the Premier League they've won six, drawn three and lost three on the road while they also crashed out of the Carabao Cup at Southampton - a result that looks even more bizarre given that the recently sacked Nathan Jones was in charge at the time.

There's always been a feeling since the start of the campaign when they paid the big bucks for Haaland that Europe remains the No.1 goal for Pep and City this season.

It's going well so far and City cruised through the group phase unbeaten, racking up 14 points via four wins and two draws. The dropped points came in 0-0 stalemates at Borussia Dortmund and FC Copenhagen while they signed off with a 4-0 romp away to Sevilla.

Draw appeals with Leipzig hard to beat

Ahead of this week's first legs, Manchester City, despite having never won this tournament, are very clear favourites to lift the trophy at 3.185/40. Bayern Munich at 4.84/1 are the only other team anywhere near them while it's then back to Liverpool at 13.012/1.

Therefore, it's no surprise they're odds on to take a first-leg lead. Man City trade at 1.865/6 to win Wednesday's clash in Germany while Leipzig are 4.67/2. The Draw is 4.03/1.

My feeling is that Leipzig are being somewhat dismissed here. Their form - one defeat in 20 games - is excellent and one relevant guide to the outcome here is their 1-1 home draw with Bayern Munich just over a month ago. They can clearly hold their own against the elite.

Maybe better still is their actual head-to-head meeting last year. City won 6-3 in Manchester in the group's opening game in September but December's return in Germany was very different as Leipzig ran out 2-1 winners.

That defeat was the only blemish for City in a red-hot run from November to mid-January that saw them win 15 games out of 16. Then again, they went into the match against Leipzig having already booked their spot in the knockout phase.

Man City are just 1.192/11 to qualify for the last eight but they may have to do the heavy lifting in the home leg.

Therefore, in a nod of respect to Leipzig, I'll back The Draw at 4.03/1.

Haaland and Werner to combine in Bet Builder

Given that this pair shared 12 goals in their two meetings last season, it's fair to look at the scorer markets.

For City, Erling Haaland must still be shaking his head at how he failed to score against Nottingham Forest at the weekend when hitting the woodwork from close range before blazing the rebound over the bar with the goal at his mercy.

But the Champions League is where City want him to make the real difference and he has some very happy memories of playing against Leipzig.

Haaland went to the Red Bull Arena twice when wearing the colours of Dortmund and each time banged in two goals. The first ensured a 2-0 win in June 2020 and his second brace secured a 3-1 victory in January 2021.

It doesn't end there. Dortmund also took on Leipzig in the 2021 German Cup final and, guess what, Haaland scored twice again, this time in a 4-1 win.

I'll have a punt on Haaland to score first but also put him in a goalscorer Bet Builder alongside ex-Chelsea man Timo Werner.

Werner never got it going at Stamford Bridge but he's netted 11 times in 23 games for Leipzig this season, including the decisive goal in their 3-2 home win over Real Madrid.

Haaland and Werner to score in a Bet Builder pays 7.26/1.

No Lose Single on the Exchange

This week's Exchange play from Betfair is looking at both teams to score in Germany, as we look to record our third straight win and maintin our 100% record in 2023.

After correctly predicting BTTS between Barcelona and Man Utd last Thursday, we then landed our Over 2.5 goals punt at Old Trafford on Sunday.

Remember, even if they did not win, you'd still get your money back as a free bet upon settling (up to £10).

So, why BTTS this time around? Well...

• Both teams have scored in eight of RB Leipzig's 10 matches in all competitions, though they've only lost one of those games (W7 D2).
• Of all sides progressing to the Last 16 of the Champions League, RB Leipzig conceded the highest number of goals during the group stages (9).
• However, after losing their opening two games they did win their last four UCL matches (2x Celtic, 1x Shakhtar 1x Real Madrid).
• Man City have now conceded in six of their last nine matches in all competitions, failing to on four of those occasions (D1 L3). They've also conceded in each of their last five away matches.
• Despite only conceding twice in the group stages, Man City have conceded five goals in their two previous meetings with RB Leipzig in the UCL (W1 L1), losing on their last visit there.
• RB Leipzig v Man City also includes Christopher Nkunku vs Erling Haaland - with the Frenchman now back from injury and remaining the second highest scorer in the Bundesliga this season with 12, despite not playing since before the WC. Haaland meanwhile has 32 goals in 31 matches this season.

Head over to the Betfair Exchange now to back BTTS now at 1.728/11 knowing you will get your money back as a free bet if it fails to land!