Champions League Final Tips: Back PSG to be on front foot

• Inter will probably allow PSG to have most of the ball

• Expect French champions to win the shot count and corner count

• Dumfries fouls a part of 17/29.50 Bet Builder

• Check out Ste Tudor's Build Ups Tips at the bottom of this page

Champions League Final Oddsboost

Paris SG winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is expected to play a pivotal role in tonight's Champions League final against Inter Milan, with shots and fouls a regular part of his game. The 24-year-old has registered seven shots on target in his last six Champions League games, and in those six matches he's been fouled an incredible 13 times.

Today you can back Kvaratskhelia to have 1+ Shot on Target and to be Fouled 1+ times at a price of 4/71.57 on the Betfair Sportsbook (excluding ET & Pens). But we can do better than that. Visit the Betfair Sportsbook now to see what price the double has been boosted to, and to see all our other Champions League oddsboosts.

Football...Only Bettor. Watch our Champions League final special

PSG v Inter
Saturday 31 May, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Change of ethos has brought UCL glory into focus

Just four years ago, PSG were basking in the glory of what they believed was one of the greatest transfer windows of all time. The mighty Lionel Messi was recruited after his tearful exit from Barcelona, Real Madrid legend Sergio Ramos arrived in the French capital, Achraf Hakimi came in after winning the Scudetto with Inter, and Liverpool's Champions League and Premier League-winning midfielder Gini Wijnaldum was snapped up too.

What followed was the nadir of PSG's galacticos project, an unworkably top-heavy collection of superstars that simply weren't equipped to compete in the modern era. Messi, Neymar and Mbappe might have seemed like the dream ticket, but it was a nightmare for coach Mauricio Pochettino, who couldn't cover for three players who didn't want to defend with intensity. That season, PSG were swept aside by Real Madrid in the last 16 of the Champions League.

Fast-forward to the present day, and Luis Enrique runs a very different operation. Ably assisted by squad planner extraordinaire Luis Campos, the Spanish coach has crafted a unit that plays with grace and jaw-dropping skill with the ball, and that defends with zealous intensity without it.

Although there are experienced players like Ousmane Dembele, Gigio Donnarumma, Fabian Ruiz and Marquinhos, there is also a young and hungry core of talented tyros like Vitinha, Joao Neves, Nuno Mendes and Desire Doue.

A domestic double has bee completed with room to spare, but this Champions League run has been far from straightforward. Only a late surge saw Paris qualify for the last 32, they needed penalties to dump out Liverpool in the last 16, and resisted late fightbacks against Aston Villa and Arsenal.

At the heart of their efforts is Luis Enrique, a man who has won the Champions League as a coach before with Barcelona. He told everyone that losing Kylian Mbappe in the summer to Real Madrid would help PSG grow as a team, and he has been proven right, with the revitalised Dembele filling that attacking void.

PSG have no major injury concerns, and the only big selection question is whether Bradley Barcola or Desire Doue will line up with Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and Dembele in the front three. That seems like the archetypal "nice problem to have."

Can grizzled Inter win the ultimate prize?

Two years ago, Inter were arguably the better team in the Champions League final against Manchester City in Istanbul, but they succumbed to Rodri's winner and Romelu Lukaku's poor finishing in a 1-0 reverse. Nerazzurri coach Simone Inzaghi says the group (which is largely still together) has learned from that experience, and now knows that the tiniest detail can affect a showpiece game like this.

Inter's run to the final has been full of extraordinary heroism and derring-do. Mighty Bayern Munich were beaten on their own patch, before Inter survived a late comeback in a 2-2 second-leg draw. Then the Italians somehow arm-wrestled a hugely impressive Barcelona into submission, beating them 7-6 on aggregate after extra time in a semi-final that will echo throughout history.

The recently deposed Italian champions - they were edged out by Napoli on the final day of the season - have an incredible tolerance for pressure. They are often willing to contain and counter, even if it means they are conceding shots and corners left, right and centre. They trust their outstanding goalkeeper Yann Sommer to keep the score down, and they have counter-attacking weapons like wing-backs Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries, and a beautifully blended front two in Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram.

Inter's only real doubt is centre-back Benjamin Pavard, and if the Frenchman isn't fully fit, then Matteo Darmian or youngster Yann Bisseck could deputise.

PSG should dominate possession

Regular readers will know I've been pretty pro-Inter in this knockout phase, and I feel like PSG are too short to back at 2.35/4 to win in 90 minutes and 1.684/6 to win the trophy. Inter will play rope-a-dope against them, and that worked against Bayern and Barcelona, although they cut it fine it both ties.

Instead, I'll have some pro-PSG bets in other ways. As Mark O'Haire pointed out on our Champions League final edition of Football Only Bettor this week, if you look at Inter's UCL games this season against Bayern, Barcelona, Arsenal, Manchester City and Bayer Leverkusen, they have lost the shot count in all seven, the shot on target battle in six out of seven, and been behind on the corner count in all of them. This isn't because Inter are a poor team, but they do play with fire deliberately because they know their best chance is to catch out the opposition on the counter and at set plays.

Therefore I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back PSG to have the most corners, PSG to have the most shots on target and the Inter keeper (Yann Sommer barring injury) to make four or more saves, which gives us a combined total of 13/82.63. Sommer's save totals across the four legs of the quarter-finals and semi-finals were 6, 4, 7 and 7, and he has made four saves or more in seven of his 13 Champions League matches this season.

Keep an eye on Dumfries v Kvaratskhelia

There are lots of fascinating matchups in this final, and one of the really intriguing ones is PSG winger Kvicha Kvaratskhelia v Denzel Dumfries. Dutchman Dumfries is something of a foul machine, and has fouled twice or more in 10 of his last 16 appearances. In Serie A this season he committed an average of 2.5 fouls per 90.

Kvaratskhelia has been fouled at least once in all eight of his Champions League appearances for PSG this term, but his defensive work-rate means he also has the willingness to apply pressure to his opposite full-back or wing-back.

I'll back Dumfries to commit two fouls and be fouled. That would be a nice little 6/52.20 double in itself, but I'll also chuck in Inter midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu to be booked, which brings us to a Bet Builder price of 17/29.50.

The Turkish international plays at the base of midfield, so will be having to try to stop Vitinha and company, but he will also have moments where his lack of pace could be exposed by PSG's lightning pace on the counter. As well as the potential for a tactical foul or two, Calhangolu can be quite mouthy too when under pressure, and he was booked in both legs of the semi-final against Barcelona. Not only that, but he has picked up a booking in five of his last seven games, so perhaps fatigue is setting in after a long season.

Now read the rest of our Champions League final previews here!