PSG v Aston Villa: Back underrated visitors to find net in Paris

• Marquinhos absence crucial blow

• Goals predicted at both ends

• Rashford poses major threat

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PSG vs Aston Villa
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

PSG are understandably and deservedly favourites for their Champions League quarter-final first leg against Aston Villa but that does not mean that the outfit from the French capital will have things entirely their own way in front of their own fans at Parc des Princes on Wednesday night.

Luis Enrique's energetic young team has had praise heaped on it from all corners of Europe since they knocked out Liverpool at the last-16 stage over 210 thrilling minutes and penalties last month. Thanks in part to how well they played in those two meetings with the Reds, PSG go into this tie as 10/34.33 second favourites to win the competition for the first time in their history (behind Barcelona, who are 3/14.00 favourites).

For all the hard running, indefatigable spirit, and possession-based bravery PSG displayed in defeating Liverpool, however, there are chinks in their armour that Unai Emery's visitors can genuinely hope to exploit.

PSG are 1.422/5 to win on the night, and 1.232/9 to qualify over the two legs. Aston Villa are 8.415/2 to win on the night, while The Draw is 5.59/2. The Premier League visitors are big outsiders at 5.04/1 to to reach the semi-finals at PSG's expense.

While we would not quibble with those prices, we are tempted to support Aston Villa in the To Qualify market. Our view is that, at some point over the two legs, Emery's side may well be shorter odds to progress than they currently are, because of the clear and obvious attacking threat they pose.

PSG were rank outsiders to qualify heading into their tie against Liverpool in the last round, and backing the underdogs proved fruitful on that occasion. We believe a similar approach makes sense here, although not enough to make Aston Villa one of our selections on the match.

PSG below-strength in defence

For us, the stand-out selection on the game is 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market. At the time of writing, this is available at 1.84/5 on the Exchange and, to us, this looks like the value pick.

PSG's average goals-scored-per-game across all competitions in 2025 is a remarkable 3.17 (in 23 matches). They may have scored only once in 210 minutes of football against Liverpool in the last round, but it took an almost career-defining performance from Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson to hold them at bay in the first leg of the tie. It would be a major surprise if PSG failed to score here.

We are more confident than the market is that Aston Villa can find the net as well. One of the main reasons is PSG's team news. Talismanic central defender Marquinhos is suspended, and that gives the hosts a serious problem at centre-back.

Understudy Lucas Beraldo looks set to start, and this may be the hosts' main weakness. Beraldo has produced several erratic performances as a starter for PSG over the past 18 months, to the point that there are questions marks about whether he is good enough for his role as first-choice back-up central defender.

The fact that Beraldo and William Pacho - PSG's regular starter alongside Marquinhos - have limited experience of playing alongside one another hands Aston Villa a great opportunity of pulling the PSG back four out of position to create good scoring opportunities.

In our view, the odds on 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market should be shorter than than they are. For that reason, we are happy to make this our main selection on the game.

Asensio and Rashford deserve support

PSG's potential defensive vulnerabilities are the reason why the Player Shots on Target markets also attract our attention.

More specifically, in the Player Shots on Target 1 or More market, Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford are available at odds of 2.01/1 and 2.26/5 respectively. The pair should be comfortable on the Parc des Princes pitch: Asensio signed for Aston Villa from PSG as recently as January this year, while Rashford famously scored late winners for Manchester United at this venue, in this competition, in the 2018-19 and 2020-21 seasons.

It should also be noted that individually, both Asensio and Rashford managed shots on target in both legs of Aston Villa's Last 16 aggregate 6-1 win over Club Brugge. Our advice would be to split your stakes across the two players.

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