Porto v Liverpool: Reds to win in goal-filled game

Mo Salah
Mo Salah has only failed to score in one game this season.
  • FC Porto vs Liverpool
  • Tue 28 Sep, 20:00

A Liverpool win on Portuguese soil with at least three goals in the game looks the way to go here at a very decent price, says Jamie Pacheco...

"The one I quite like is Luis Diaz at 11/2. He had a quite season last time out but has been in super form this campaign. He’s got nine goals in 14 matches for club and country and it’s not just in the Portuguese league he’s been scoring goals."

Porto unbeaten so far this season

It's been a good start to Porto's season.

They're actually unbeaten so far, with five wins and two draws in the league. That includes a 1-1 draw at home to reigning champions Sporting Lisbon.

In Europe, they grabbed an extremely creditable draw away at Atletico Madrid. And they were good value for that stalemate, creating a few decent chances themselves.

Porto did of course have that excellent run in this competition last year that saw them famously knock out Juventus and only eventual champions Chelsea were too good for them.

PepePorto020620.jpg

Chancel Mbemba is suspended after being sent off late in the game in Madrid, while Taremi is an injury doubt.

Salah in fine form for PL table-toppers

Liverpool are top of the table in the Premier League and only aren't further ahead than they are because they weren't able to beat Brentford late on Saturday afternoon.

They should really have won that given Mo Salah had an excellent chance at 3-2, to make it 4-2. He didn't and the Reds paid the price in what was just a brilliant game of football where no-one deserved to lose.

FC Porto

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Liverpool

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Tuesday 28 September, 20:00

Full stats

Salah, however, has been their main man in attack. No surprises there. He's scored in six of their seven games so far this season. That included netting one against Brentford on Saturday and he also scored in their 3-2 win over Milan in their sole European outing this season.

Liverpool should win, game to have goals

Liverpool have been pretty ruthless when it comes to playing Porto over the past few years.

In the 2018/19 season they beat them 2-0 at home and 4-1 away to win 6-1 on aggregate and the year before that it was 5-0 in Porto to the Reds, before they took their foot off the pedal and 'just' drew 0-0 at home, when all the hard work was done.

Obvious as this may sound, there's just that little bit more class in the Liverpool team. It begs the question: how many Porto players would get into the Liverpool side?

It's 1.768/11 the straight Liverpool win but I think we can do better than that. Remarkably, Liverpool have scored exactly three goals in each of their last five matches. Those were wins by 3-0, 3-2, 3-0 and 3-0, plus that 3-3 draw at the weekend. So they're not just edging games 1-0, they're very much looking to score lots of goals and win convincingly.

But I wouldn't discount Porto grabbing a goal themselves. Only away at Atletico, one of the toughest matches in club football, did they fail to score.

Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool boss.jpg

Any sort of Liverpool win by 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 or anything like that is covered by Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals in the game at 6/4 and that looks the way to go.

Diaz can score on the day

Mo Salah has been in fine form and irrespective of the prices he was available at to score, you would have collected six times out of seven on him so far this season. But 8/11 looks a little on the short side.

Especially given that Liverpool play Manchester City next weekend and they'll need their Egyptian genius at his best. Jurgen Klopp may figure this could be the game to give Salah a rest and you don't want to be backing at player at odds-on who may not get 20 minutes at the end. Best wait to see if he's definitely starting; you'll probably get a bigger price on the Exchange any way.

The one I quite like is Luis Diaz at 11/2. He had a quite season last time out but has been in super form this campaign. He's got nine goals in 14 matches for club and country and it's not just in the Portuguese league he's been scoring goals.

Three appearances in the Copa America qualifiers yielded a goal against eventual champions Argentina and a brace against Peru in a 3-2 win. In a World Cup qualifier against Chile at the start of the month, he also scored.

He's definitely worth a punt as Porto's main striker, at home, at very decent odds.

BTTS and an assist from TAA

As hinted already, Porto could well be good for a goal here. Liverpool did after all, just concede three at Brentford. And the hosts know that playing for 0-0 is unlikely to come off so they have to show some attacking intent. I can't see the Reds not scoring so 4/6 on both teams to score looks a decent wager as part of a Bet Builder.

Trent Alexander-Arnold has been in fine form himself, of late. He's been bombing down that right flank and is now the main man when it comes to set-pieces. It's 15/8 he gets an assist in the game and that looks decent, too.

The double comes to 4.21.

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