Opta Predicts Real Madrid v Man City: Back Haaland and Mbappe in 8/1 bet builder

• Opta present the stats and say Man City can avoid defeat

• Visitors to give Courtois a busy night at the Bernabeu

• Haaland and Mbappe backed to hit target at least twice 

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

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Real Madrid v Man City
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Xabi Alonso is under pressure at Real Madrid going into a huge UEFA Champions League clash against Manchester City on Wednesday. 

A 2-0 home defeat to Celta Vigo on Sunday, in which Madrid had defenders Fran Garcia and Alvaro Carreras - as well as substitute Endrick - sent off, marked a new low for Los Blancos this term. 

It all started so well under Alonso, who won 10 of his first 11 LaLiga matches at the helm, while also guiding Madrid to three wins in Europe. 

Yet since beating Valencia 4-0 on 1 November, Madrid have only won two of their seven games across all competitions, drawing three and losing two. 

A Champions League clash with in-form Man City, and a first managerial meeting with his former coach Pep Guardiola, is hardly the ideal scenario for Alonso, who suddenly finds himself very much in the spotlight.  

Reports in Spain suggest Alonso's position is under threat just six months after he arrived, with Madrid's hierarchy holding a meeting to discuss his future on the eve of this heavyweight clash.  

Using Opta data, we have delved into the best insights and used them to come up with a bet builder for a key contest at the Santiago Bernabeu. 

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Listen to the Football...Only Bettor Champions League MD6 preview

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Man City could pile the pressure on Alonso 

Both Madrid and Man City are 15/28.50 to win the Champions League on the Betfair Sportsbook. 

But Opta's supercomputer thinks a City triumph is more likely, handing them a 10% chance of winning this competition for the second time in their history, the fourth favourites after Arsenal (22%), Bayern Munich (18%) and Paris Saint-Germain (13%).  

Madrid, meanwhile, are sixth favourites to win a record-extending 16th European crown, with a 5% chance. 

The Spanish giants will not win any trophies if they carry on playing like they are doing right now. 

Madrid's return of six points from five LaLiga games since 2 November would put them eighth in the table, with fierce rivals Barcelona taking three times as many points in that same span (18 from six matches). As it is, Madrid sit second, four points off the pace. 

And given Madrid's poor form, a price of 7/52.40 for City to win on Wednesday is likely to tempt many punters. 

Madrid are also 7/52.40, with the draw 11/53.20. Backing the home side on the Double Chance market returns 4/91.44, while it is 1/21.50 for City to avoid defeat. 

Neither side is expected to run away with it, as Opta's supercomputer can barely split them, with Madrid handed a 38.2% chance and City a 37.7% win probability. The likelihood of a draw is 24.1%. 

Since the start of November, Madrid have scored 10 goals (1.4 per game) and conceded nine (1.3 per game), shipping three in their last Champions League outings even as they ran out 4-3 victors over Olympiacos. 

That run has come after they won 13 of their first 14 matches of 2025/26, suffering one defeat, scoring 34 goals (2.4 per game) and conceding 11 (0.8 per game). 

Madrid have already lost to an English team this term, going down 1-0 to Liverpool at Anfield on 4 November. Alonso's team only managed eight shots with a combined expected goals (xG) value of 0.45 on Merseyside, and their two shots on target were their fewest in a Champions League game since facing Liverpool in the 2021-22 final (also two).  

Despite the narrow margin of victory at Anfield, Liverpool won convincingly and Madrid did not even manage one shot on target in the second-half, the first time that has happened since the 2023-24 quarter finals, at the Etihad Stadium against Man City. 

This will be the 15th time that Madrid and City have faced each other in the Champions League. Since their first meeting in September 2012, it is the most-played fixture in the competition. 

City have lost their last two games against Madrid, suffering defeats home and away against them in last season's play-off round. But they have had success in this fixture, with those two defeats as many losses as they had suffered in their previous 11 games against the Spanish side combined (W4 D5 L2). 

And City come into this match in impressive form. Since losing successive games to Newcastle United and Bayer Leverkusen, they have bounced back with three straight Premier League wins and now only trail Arsenal by two points. 

Given Madrid's struggles, City will surely sense this is an ideal opportunity to claim a statement win and propel themselves towards the knockouts. Whether as an odds-against outright selection or on the Double Chance market, they hold appeal. 

Expect plenty of shots from Haaland and Mbappe 

While City are on a good run of results, only one of their recent wins came in comfortable fashion, and that was their 3-0 triumph over Sunderland on Saturday. 

Prior to that, they shipped four goals against Fulham in what turned out to be a nervy 5-4 victory, while they almost failed to triumph from a two-goal lead against Leeds United before Phil Foden popped up with a late winner. 

So while they are winning, City are also leaking chances and goals to their opponents. 

In fact, across their last five games - since the end of the last international break - City have faced 45 shots (nine per game), with 18 of those hitting the target, which equates to 3.6 per game. 

Madrid have averaged 7.6 shots on target per match this term, and 19.8 attempts per game.  

Backing Los Blancos for at least eight shots on target returns 15/82.88, while 7+ Madrid SoT is available at 1/12.00. A more conservative approach of 6+ is 8/151.53. 

But City are not shy when it comes to shooting, either. Why would you be, with Erling Haaland leading your line? 

City have averaged 15.6 shots per game and six attempts on target per match this term. Incredibly, Haaland has had 77 of City's 345 shots (22.3%) and 43 of their 132 attempts on target (32.5%). 

City to have 6+ SoT is 6/52.20, while 5+ at 8/151.53 may also offer value. A bolder 7+ SoT pick for the visitors returns 23/103.30. 

Guardiola's team can be backed at 1/12.00 to have at least 16 shots, and 8/111.73 for 15+. 

Star striker Haaland, meanwhile, is available at 4/71.57 for 4+ total shots, and 7/52.40 for 5+. Backing the Norwegian goal machine to register 2+ SoT returns 8/131.61 and 3+ brings back 11/53.20.  

The 25-year-old has averaged 3.85 shots and 2.15 attempts on target per match this campaign. 

Haaland has had at least one shot on target on each of his last 29 Champions League appearances, while he has had 4+ shots in each of his last six games in the competition, including attempting five against Madrid in February.  

It is an enticing 23/103.30 to back 14+ SoT in total from both teams combined, and 13+ returns 6/42.50, with 12+ coming in at 10/111.91. 

Madrid having more shots on target is available at 8/151.53, with City at 13/82.63. 

Plenty of shots should equate to the goalkeepers keeping busy.  

Thibaut Courtois often comes up big for Madrid, especially in this competition. He is expected to start and is 6/52.20 to make 4+ saves and 13/53.60 for 5+. The goalkeeper has had to make at least three saves in five of his last six appearances for Los Blancos, and he made eight stops at Anfield in his last UCL game. He has an overall save percentage of 76 from 72 shots on target faced. 

On the flip side, Man City signed Gianluigi Donnarumma to come up with the goods in key moments, just as he did for Paris Saint-Germain in Europe last term. He is 8/151.53 to make four or more saves, 11/102.11 for 5+ and 9/43.25 to pull of at least six stops. 

Despite there being a compelling case to get behind City in this match, it's worth noting Madrid are currently on the third-longest streak of scoring in consecutive home games in European Cup or UCL history (38 games).  

The last visiting side to keep a clean sheet away to Madrid in this competition was CSKA Moscow in December 2018, in a 0-0 draw. 

Guardiola's team, meanwhile, have plundered 11 goals in their last three games, albeit against lower quality opponents. But with Madrid so threadbare at the back - Eder Militao is expected to miss around four months due to an injury sustained last time out - the visitors should be licking their lips. 

So, backing against either team keeping a clean sheet makes sense. 

It is 2/51.40 for both teams to score, while a City win and BTTS is 3/14.00.  

As for Mbappe, he is expected to play despite sustaining a finger injury, and it can't be overstated just how reliant Madrid have been on him this season. 

Since the end of the Club World Cup, Mbappe has scored 25 goals in all competitions for Madrid, with their next-most prolific player Vinicius Junior on five goals. 

That means Mbappe has scored 56.8% of Madrid's goals this season (25/44). 

The France captain has scored the most goals (nine), had the most shots (32), the most shots on target (18) and created the most chances (20) in the Champions League this term. Among all players in Europe's top five leagues, only Harry Kane (28) has scored more goals than Mbappe in all competitions in 2025/26. 

Plus, Mbappe has a fantastic record against City.  

He has been directly involved in eight goals in seven games against them in the Champions League (seven goals, one assist); only Lionel Messi has had a hand in more against the Citizens in the competition (nine in eight appearances - seven goals, two assists).   

That haul includes four goals across two legs in last season's play-off tie, with the superstar striker scoring in a dramatic 3-2 victory at the Etihad before netting a hat-trick in a 3-1 Madrid victory at the Bernabeu.  

It is no surprise, then, to see Mbappe at a short 5/61.84 to score anytime, while he is 4/15.00 to net at least twice and 7/24.50 to open the scoring, or 8/131.61 to score or assist. 

Mbappe has already had a whopping 106 shots in all competitions in 2025/26 (5.0 per game), hitting the target 51 times (2.4 per game). He is 4/91.44 for 2+ SoT and 7/52.40 for 3+. He can also be backed at 4/71.57 for 5+ total shots and 6/52.20 for 6+. 

At the other end, there's the monstrous Haaland. 

Haaland is, unsurprisingly, level with Mbappe in the anytime goalscorer betting, at 5/61.84. The Norwegian is 4/15.00 to score multiple goals or 10/34.33 to net first - the shortest price of any player. 

The impressive metrics put up by both of the two big-name strikers means each of them could hold appeal either in the goals or shots markets. 

Backing Foden or Vinicius could offer value  

While City were heavily reliant on Haaland early in the campaign, he is now being backed up by the in-form Foden. 

The England international has scored four goals in his last three appearances, while going further back he has had a hand in nine goals in seven starts for City across all competitions since the start of November (seven goals, two assists), more than any other Premier League player during this period.  

In Europe, Foden has created four chances per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season, while across all competitions he's created 2+ chances in 15 of his last 19 starts.  

Foden is 13/53.60 to score at any time, or 17/29.50 to get the first goal. Given Foden's creative prowess, a price of 6/52.20 for him to score or assist, or 13/53.60 to tee up a goal, hold some appeal.  

In-form Foden had 20 shots in his last six starts, averaging 3.33 per game. He is 1/12.00 to have at least three attempts here, or a more conservative 3/101.30 for two or more. 

Foden can also be backed at 8/151.53 to get a shot on target, 5/23.50 for 2+ or a juicy 17/29.50 for 3+. He has had multiple shots on target in two of his last three matches.  

Jeremy Doku has been impressive too and is 6/42.50 to score or assist. Rayan Cherki pulled off an outrageous rabona cross to tee up Foden against Sunderland at the weekend, and the France international is 7/52.40 for a goal involvement.  

Returning to the Madrid side, Vinicius is 9/52.80 to score anytime and Jude Bellingham is 11/43.75 to get on the scoresheet. Vinicius is 1/12.00 to register a goal or an assist, with Bellingham available at 7/52.40. 

Vinicius has not scored since 4 October, however, while he last assisted when he set up two of Mbappe's goals against Olympiacos in Madrid's last UCL game. However, the Brazilian has had 6+ shots in each of his last four appearances. A goal could well be coming. 

After Mbappe, Vinicius has had the second-most shots (65) and shots on target (21) among Madrid players since the end of the Club World Cup. The Brazilian is 2/71.29 to get at least one on target, having averaged exactly 1.0 per appearance this campaign, or a tempting 13/102.30 for 2+ SoT. Vinicius averages three shots per match, and he is 1/31.33 to reach that mark here. 

Bellingham, meanwhile, is 8/111.73 to fire off three shots, 8/151.53 to get one or more on target or 12/53.40 for 2+. He has had 17 attempts on target in 16 appearances this season, though Arda Guler tries his luck more often, totalling 37 shots to Bellingham's 32. The Turkiye creator is 10/111.91 to have at least three shots. 

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