Newcastle v Barcelona: Back Eddie Howe's men to avoid defeat in this 7/5 Bet Builder

• Toon Army are a dangerous beast as the underdog

• Pedri to be sucked in by midfield masters of manipulation 

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Newcastle v Barcelona
Thursday 18 September, 20:00
Live on TNT

St James' Park to make Barca heads spin

Let me tell you something for free: you don't walk into St James' Park on a European night and leave unscathed. Especially not aainst this Newcastle.

Even Barcelona are likely to feel the heat. Yes, they've got the history, a badge that makes neutrals swoon. But that's not going to help them on Tyneside, under the glow of floodlights and the noise of 50,000 black-and-white believers roaring themselves hoarse for the hope of a major European scalp.

The price on Newcastle double chance here has got me seriously interested at 4/71.57 on the Sportsbook.

Newcastle are intense and unforgiving on these type of nights and relish being the underdogs.

Howe's men are unbeaten in their last seven fixtures at home where they've gone off bigger than Evens to win the match. They won five of those games.

I also think the models are still overrating a Barca side that struggle to do the basics right in defence, plays a defensive line that will leave Howe licking his lips and crumbles when they can't control the tempo of a game. Newcastle will be in their faces, making this one a scrap. Barca won't be comfortable. 

The 4/71.57 on Newcastle double chance is a great starting point for a bet.

The best midfield in the world?

Is there a better all-round midfield trio in world football right now than Newcastle United's Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes, and Sandro Tonali? This isn't Geordie bias. This isn't Premier League bias. This is a genuine argument and one which has plenty of substance.

These three can dominate games. Joelinton, once a miscast striker of course, now bullies opponents into submission, Bruno floats between lines with the grace of a ballet dancer but the eye of the tiger and Tonali is a the brains of the operation that also can mix it with severe physicality.

OK, maybe there is a little bias in my work here as not only do these three possess the balance, nous, physicality and elegance required to be a top midfielders, they are also the masters at drawing fouls and have therefore landed me lots of winning punts over the past 12 months.

The masters of manipulation in the Toon midfield draw sensational fouls won numbers.

All three are press-resistant, ball-carrying, foul-baiting specialists.

Bruno is the most fouled player in the Premier League since the start of last season when it comes to players who have drawn more than 25 fouls, drawing 2.83 fouls per game. Tonali is working at a 1.43 average and Joelinton not far behind on 1.19.

The last 32 central midfielders to start against the Toon have made 48 fouls in total, boasting a healthy average of 1.5 fouls per central midfielder per game.

These numbers and likelihood of fouls being won by Newcastle's central players make Barcelona's central midfielder Pedri a very appealing price to make a foul with the Betfair Sportsbook offering up 8/131.61.

Yes, his overall fouls data of 0.28 per game across his last 30 starts is underwhelming but the foul drawing ability of that Toon trio outweighs the data from the fouls committed perspective.

Many players with low fouls data have faced the titanic trio and succumbed to their temptation to being fouled. Pedri is likely to be next.

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