Copenhagen are tough nuts to crack at home
Try another Bruno Fernandes 1-0 at 40/141.00 on BB
FC Copenhagen v Man Utd
Wednesday November 8, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1
Danes competitive but coming up short
One point from their opening three games would have seemed fairly guessable if trying to predict how well Copenhagen would fare in a tough-looking group.
But it doesn't tell the whole story. The Danes were 2-0 up away to Galatasaray in Matchday 1 before having a man sent off and drawing 2-2. Next up, they led Bayern 1-0 in Copenhagen with 66 minutes gone before losing 2-1.
And then there was the first game against Manchester United at Old Trafford two weeks ago. They entered the final 20 minutes with the scoreline still 0-0, conceded and then wasted a glorious chance to nick a point as Jordan Larsson's added time penalty was saved by Andre Onana.
Since that narrow loss, they've hit eight goals in two Danish SAS Ligaen games, scoring a 4-0 home win over Hvidovre and a 4-2 success at Randers. For some context, Copenhagen top their domestic league by four points while those two rivals are both in the bottom four.
United keeping head above water... just
Manchester United and Erik ten Hag are walking a tightrope both domestically and in Europe. And a pattern keeps emerging. Just when it seems they're in deep crisis, the Red Devils pull out a result.
That was the case in Saturday's Premier League clash against Fulham at Craven Cottage. The match could have gone either way but Bruno Fernandes popped up to hit a fine winner in the 90th-minute.
They were in a perilous position in this tournament too after opening defeats against Bayern Munich (3-4) and Galatasaray (2-3). This time it was the much-maligned Harry Maguire who grabbed the only goal of the game to defeat Copenhagen.
With Bayern running away with the group, second place is very achievable for United and should Harry Kane and co see off Galatasaray again, Ten Hag's side can go two points above the Turks. Anything else, and they could be in big trouble given their final two fixtures are Galatasaray away and Bayern at home.
Copenhagen no pushovers so take draw
There's no harm in firing in lots of goals domestically but where do Copenhagen fit in when it comes to the Champions League which is surely the best measure when assessing a fixture like this?
Actually, they're not bad, at least when it comes to games on their own patch. While they haven't won any of their last six home Champions League ties, five of those ended in draws.
And, as their fans will be quick to point out, their first ever victory in this competition was a home victory over Man Utd in 2006/7.
Copenhagen are 16/54.20 to re-enact that memorable night while Man Utd are 17/20 to complete the double over the Danish side. The Draw, which has to be tempting given the hosts' history in the Champions League, is 29/10.
A closer look at those Copenhagen stalemates shows that four of the five actually ended 0-0. Champions League games in the Parken Stadium are not the place to go to see goals so let's cash in on that with a Bet Builder of a Draw and Unders.
United have been scraping away wins of late - 1-0 at Fulham, 2-1 at Sheffield United and 1-0 at Burnley - and a similar level of performance here has every chance of producing a low-scoring draw.
With just one victory in their last seven Champions League road games, backing United at odds-on makes very little appeal.
Fernandes and Hojlund worth a look
I don't fancy many goals but it's still possible to justify a scorer bet on Bruno Fernandes given that he's been the matchwinner in United's recent 1-0 victories at Fulham and Burnley.
In fact, he also pulled off that same trick in international colours as a 43rd-minute strike gave Portugal a 1-0 away win in Slovakia in a Euro 2024 qualifier back in September.
Fernandes to score in a 1-0 Man Utd win pays a pretty tempting 40/141.00 so we'll have a small dabble.
Of course, this game sees new United striker, Rasmus Hojlund, return to the club where he came through the ranks as a teenager. His brothers, Oscar and Emil, are also part of the Copenhagen squad.
Hojlund is yet to get off the mark in the Premier League which is hugely disappointing but he has scored three times in this competition, netting away to Bayern and bagging a brace in the 3-2 home loss against Galatasaray.
For those who like a good story, Hojlund is just under 7/18.00 to score the first goal in a United success.