Dortmund v PSV: Home side appeal at odds-against

• Dortmund's strong home UCL record

• PSV struggling to hit early season heights

• BVB appeal at odds-against

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Dortmund v PSV
Wednesday March 13, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Donyell Malen came back to haunt his old club by firing Dortmund 2.166/5 into the lead in the first-leg of this Champions League last-16 knockout tie, before PSV bounced back to claim a 1-1 draw in the Netherlands thanks to Luuk de Jong's penalty.

Malen was on the scoresheet again at the weekend as BVB picked up a vital 2-1 victory over Werder Bremen, meaning the Dutchman has now scored in each of his past four games across all competitions. With Jadon Sancho also registering a first strike since rejoining the club, coach Edin Terzic has every reason to be positive about his team's prospects here.

Going forward, Die Schwarzgelben can call upon almost a full set of forward options. Alongside Malen and Sancho, BVB have the likes of Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus and Niclas Fullkrug vying for first-team starts, though Sebastian Haller remains unavailable. The firepower at Dortmund's disposal far outweighs that of their visitors.

PSV 3.4549/20 arguably edged the first-leg encounter but failed to capitalise and Peter Bosz's outfit have struggled to hit their early season heights in recent weeks. Boasting a 13-point advantage at the top of the Eredivisie, a first domestic title since 2018 is still very much in their grasp, yet performances against the likes of Feyenoord and Ajax have underwhelmed.

The Rood-Witten were dumped out of the KNVB Cup without scoring at Feyenoord and were second-best against the same opposition during a 2-2 draw in league action 10 days ago. PSV also had to settle for a share of the spoils when travelling to crisis-club Ajax last month, whilst Bosz's men have managed just three clean sheets in nine Eredivisie outings.

Dortmund deliver at the Westfalenstadion

My numbers made Dortmund favourites here with my prices closer to evens, so I'm happy to back the hosts at 2.166/5 on the Exchange. BVB are unbeaten in each of their last eight home Champions League fixtures (W4-D4-L0), a run that includes eye-catching efforts when welcoming Newcastle and PSG to North Rhine-Westphalia this term.

Go further back, and Dortmund have suffered defeats only twice in 18 UCL contests at their Westfalenstadion base with one of those reverses arriving against Man City. The German giants are well accustomed to the pressures of playing knockout football, and that psychological edge could prove decisive against a PSV side that's green on this stage.

The Dutch table-toppers are winless since 2005 in away Champions League knockout matches and have also failed to succeed in 16 trips to German clubs across all competitions, a run that started way back in the 1970s. With that in-mind, I'm keen to proceed by keeping things simple by backing Dortmund at 2.166/5 to win in 90 minutes on Wednesday night.

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