Champions League: Liverpool best value as Opta predicts every team's chances

• Every Champions League last 16 team's chances rated

• Latest Betfair odds for outright winner 2024/25

• Are Liverpool on course for UCL and Premier League double?

• Plus why should be with Inter and against Real Madrid

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Watch Football...Only Bettor Champions League last 16 special

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With the Champions League bracket set, we now know all the potential opponents and permutations for each remaining team who are bidding to make it all the way to May's final in Munich.  

Using our Opta supercomputer and running through all the data, probabilities and team ratings, we assess the tournament chances of every team who are set to play in the Champions League round of 16. Let's get into it. 

 

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Liverpool 

Opta win probability: 18% 

Outright price: 11/26.50  

Liverpool's outright price implies a probability of 15.4% that they will win their seventh European Cup or Champions League title. When you compare that to the 18% chance given to them by the Opta supercomputer, there is value in backing them for one of potentially many trophies here.  

The issue faced by Arne Slot's side is obvious in that few teams will have a more difficult route to the final. As per Opta, they have the fourth-toughest draw in the round of 16 against PSG, while one of Arsenal, Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid will likely be waiting for the Reds in the semi-final.  

But thinking about it logically, what do Liverpool have to fear? They come into the knockout stages of the Champions League rated by Opta as the best team in world football, having already beaten Real Madrid - who are second in our Power Rankings - during the league phase, which they also topped. It is hard to make a case against them representing the best value.  

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Barcelona

Opta win probability: 16% 

Outright price: 9/25.50  

No team saw their outright probability jump more than Barcelona immediately after the draw for the knockout stages had been made. Hansi Flick's side saw a 2.7% increase in their likelihood for Champions League success after landing on the kinder side of the bracket.  

Barcelona have been given the sixth-least difficult tie against Benfica, but perhaps more importantly, their possible path to reaching the final would see them not have to play a team in the top 10 of Opta's Power Rankings until the semi-final stage.  

Having said that, the supercomputer gives Barcelona a 33% chance of reaching the Champions League final, which is more or less in line with the implied probability of their price of 2/13.00 to do so. While that is not to say don't back them to get there, there are better-value picks. Their outright price, meanwhile, implies 18.2% probability and is best avoided.  

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Inter Milan 

Opta win probability: 13% 

Outright price: 12/113.00 

 No team in the Champions League round of 16 has a better chance of reaching the quarter-final than Inter according to the Opta supercomputer, which is reflected in their price of 1/71.14 to get there.  

The Italian side are also, along with Liverpool, one of the best value picks to go all the way. Their sportsbook price implies just a 7.7% chance of success, giving a 5.3% discrepancy compared to the Opta supercomputer - the biggest difference of any team left in the competition. 

Our predictive model has liked Inter's chances since before a ball was kicked this season, and that faith was rewarded by a fourth-place finish in the league stage. They are now preparing to face Feyenoord.  

Priced up as equal-sixth favourites, Inter actually have the third-best chance of winning the Champions League according to the supercomputer.  

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Real Madrid

Opta win probability: 12% 

Outright price: 10/34.33  

Hold on to your hats, but masters of Europe Real Madrid are one to get against. Carlo Ancelotti's side ended up lifting the trophy in just 12% of Opta tournament simulations, while their price suggests a 23.1% probability of success. Even if you vehemently believe in their ability to win it again, the difference between the numbers makes them poor value.  

With potential stumbling blocks at each stage from the round of 16 to the final, it is hard to see how they can justify favouritism outside of an ineffable aura in this competition. 

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Arsenal 

Opta win probability: 11% 

Outright price: 11/26.50  

Arsenal are the team whose win probability took the biggest hit immediately after the draw for the round of 16 was made. Their chance of winning the trophy dropped from 16.8% to 13.6% in the immediate aftermath and it has since fallen further following less-than-impressive Premier League form.  

First up is a last-16 tie against PSV, who dispatched Juventus in the previous round. While the Dutch side should provide stern opposition, Arsenal's price of 2/91.22 (implied probability of 81.8%) to qualify confirms the expected one-sidedness of it. The Gunners are rated by Opta 6.1 points better than PSV, while they took four points off them in the group stage of last year's tournament at an aggregate score of 5-1.  

From the quarter-final onwards, the Gunners have the hardest route to the final. Should results go with Opta Power Rankings, Arsenal would be in line to face the only two teams currently above them. That would mean Real Madrid in the last eight before a semi-final against Liverpool and, currently, there is not enough juice in a price that implies a 15.4% chance of continental silverware. 

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Paris Saint-Germain 

Opta win probability: 9% 

Outright price: 12/113.00  

Going into a crunch tie with Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain are sixth-favourites to win the Champions League on the sportsbook and also the sixth-likeliest team to do so according to the Opta supercomputer.  

A 10-0 aggregate win over compatriots Brest - the second-biggest ever aggregate victory in Champions League history - in the play-off round suggests that they have undergone significant improvement since the league stage. But don't forget that PSG spent a large period of time in the elimination zone and only secured their spot in the next round on Matchday Eight.  

In any case, it is hard to get behind them to get past the best-rated team in the Champions League when, in the same season, they have already been beaten by Arsenal, Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich.  

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Bayer Leverkusen

Opta win probability: 5% 

Outright price: 33/134.00  

The difference in price between round-of-16 opposition Leverkusen and Bayern Munich despite both being equally favoured by the supercomputer presents us with an opportunity to get an edge.  

Leverkusen and Bayern Munich have traded draws in their Bundesliga meetings this season, implying that there is little between them. Despite this, Xabi Alonso's side are 11/82.38 to qualify for the quarter-final - giving an implied probability of just 42.1%. The supercomputer, meanwhile, gives them a 52% chance of progression, so this looks like a great bet.  

As far as winning the competition goes, the supercomputer also gives them a better chance than the sportsbook, though there are better bets.  

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Bayern Munich 

Opta win probability: 5% 

Outright price: 7/18.00  

Alongside Real Madrid, Bayern Munich are another team worth backing against. They are priced on the sportsbook as fifth-favourites to win Champions League, despite being seen as more likely than not to lose their last-16 tie by the Opta supercomputer. It is also worth pointing out that Vincent Kompany's side needed a stoppage-time Alphonso Davies goal at home to Celtic to save their play-off tie going to extra-time.  

Their outright price implies a 12.5% chance of going all the way, which is more than double that of the supercomputer. The 11/43.75 (26.7%) for them to reach the final on home soil is another to lay, with the supercomputer giving them just a 12% chance. 

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Atletico Madrid

Opta win probability: 3% 

Outright price: 20/121.00  

Atletico Madrid's miniscule chances of winning the Champions League are largely to do with landing on the wrong side of the bracket.   

They did well to finish fifth in the league stage, but a potential route to the final of Real Madrid, Arsenal and Liverpool - the top three sides in the Opta Power Rankings - is too full of danger to get behind them in any meaningful way.  

Even at a relatively chunky 6/52.20 (45.5% implied chance) to qualify to the quarter-final, they are best avoided given that the supercomputer suggests their chances of getting that far are just 37%. 

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Lille

Opta win probability: 2% 

Outright price: 100/1101.00  

While Lille are unlikely to bring the trophy back home with them, the supercomputer gives them twice as much chance of doing so than the Betfair Sportsbook. According to the odds, there are just three teams less likely than Lille to win the Champions League compared to six that have a smaller win probability according to the supercomputer.   

Notably, Lille have been given the kindest draw in the round of 16 as per Opta Team Ratings. They face a Borussia Dortmund team lodged in mid-table in the Bundesliga, who are on their second manager and are enduring a terrible season.  

Lille outperformed expectations to finish seventh in the league stage - they were given just a 22% chance to reach this stage by the supercomputer pre-tournament - beating Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid enroute.  

With the top four in the Opta Power Rankings on the other side of the bracket, those on Lille's side have an opportunity. With the supercomputer giving them a 5% chance of reaching the final, there is value in the 33/134.00 about them to reach May's showpiece. 

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Benfica 

Opta win probability: 1% 

Outright price: 66/167.00  

Benfica have the second-smallest chance (25%) of reaching the quarter-final out of any team left in the Champions League. They take on a Barcelona team rated as the second-likeliest to win the competition and who beat them 5-4 at home in the league stage, despite the Portuguese side having been two goals ahead with 12 minutes remaining.  

The size of the task at hand is reflected in odds of 31/104.10 to qualify for the last eight. Realistically, it is better to look elsewhere for a longer-priced pick. 

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Aston Villa 

Opta win probability: 1% 

Outright price: 33/134.00  

According to Opta Team Ratings, only Lille and Inter were given kinder draws than Aston Villa in the Champions League round of 16. But, at 2/51.40 (71.4% implied probability) to qualify for the next round, there is no value in getting behind Unai Emery's side, who the supercomputer rates as having a 55% chance of making it through against Club Brugge.  

The 33/134.00 about them to go all the way is also prohibitively short considering that, as per Opta, they have a one in 100 chance of doing so. A route to the final involving Liverpool and likely one of Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid or Arsenal means that it is worth getting against Villa. 

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PSV Eindhoven

Opta win probability: 1% 

Outright price: 150/1151.00  

Having landed on the more difficult side of the draw, with the third-most difficult round-of-16 opposition to come, it is understandable that PSV are put up as one of the least likely teams to go all the way.  

Should they make the final against both the odds and Opta's predictions, then they will have had to do it the hard way, with potential matches against Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid and Liverpool or PSG to come after Arsenal.  But their price of 16/54.20 to make the next round implies a probability of 23.8% and offers a touch of value given that the supercomputer pegs them at 29%. 

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Club Brugge 

Opta win probability: 1% 

Outright price: 150/1151.00  

No team finished lower than Club Brugge in the league stage and still made it through to the knockout stages. Their only victory against any team that finished above 23rd in the league stage came via a fortuitous penalty at home to last-16 opposition Aston Villa in November, don't expect them to be as charitable again.  

While they did well to defeat Atalanta in the play-off, they appear to be priced about right going into the latter stages of the tournament. 

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Feyenoord 

Opta win probability: 1% 

Outright price: 200/1201.00  

According to the Opta supercomputer, Feyenoord have the smallest chance of making it through each respective round of the Champions League. They have been handed the fifth-most difficult opposition in the round of 16 as per Opta Ratings, with a prospective quarter-final against Bayer Leverkusen or Bayern Munich - both of whom are rated 94.9 or above.  At an outright price that implies a probability of 0.5% of winning the competition, they are best avoided. 

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Borussia Dortmund 

Opta win probability: 1% 

Outright price: 50/151.00  

Dortmund are undoubtedly the biggest fallers in terms of expectation and level of performance this season. Last season's beaten finalists are rated by Opta at the side in the Champions League round of 16 with the smallest chance of winning the competition.  

Their odds of 3/41.75 to qualify for the quarter-final imply a probability of 57.1%, while the supercomputer gives them just a 44% chance of doing so. On the basis of that discrepancy, they are worth laying, with their last-16 opposition Lille priced at 21/202.05 (implied probability of 48.8%) to progress while being given a 56% chance of doing so by the supercomputer. 

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