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Barcelona v PSG: Hosts strong enough to mount exhilarating fightback

As usual Lionel Messi will take a starring role this week
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With eight winners from 10 Champions League selections this season James Eastham looks at the big clash at Camp Nou on Wednesday night...


"The hosts cannot afford to waste too much time defending if they want to plant a seed of doubt in PSG’s minds."

Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals @ [1.99]

Barcelona v PSG
Wed, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport Showcase / BT Sport 2


Introduction

Barcelona should be close to full strength, with Jeremy Mathieu and Alex Vidal their only injury absentees.

PSG have doubts over midfielders Adrien Rabiot and Thiago Motta and winger Angel Di Maria. All three were in the party that travelled from the French capital to Catalonia on Tuesday morning.


Match Odds
Barcelona [1.47], PSG [7.2], The Draw [5.4]


PSG may have thrashed Barcelona 4-0 in the first leg but the prices reflect the fact that Barcelona will do everything in their power to achieve one of the most remarkable comebacks in European football history.

The hosts' odds may seem short given how comprehensively they were outplayed in the first leg but PSG simply don't need to win so there's little point in backing the visitors. Given that the Ligue 1 outfit can afford to lose by two or three goals and still go through it will be difficult for them to approach the game with a raging desire to win it.

For all their problems Barcelona are the more experienced European side and fully capable of winning on the night. If you're looking for a wager in this market, the hosts would be the smart pick.


Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders [3.25], Overs [1.42]


With Barcelona needing to score at least four times to stand any chance of going through it's little surprise Overs is overwhelming favourite in this market.

We successfully backed Overs at [1.81] in the first leg but there's no chance of you finding odds like that ahead of kick-off this time. Barcelona will be wary of conceding the away goal that would leave them with an even bigger mountain the climb - should PSG find the net, Barca would need to score at least six times - but the hosts cannot waste too much time defending if they want to plant a seed of doubt in PSG's minds.

With skinny odds on Over 2.5 Goals you may prefer to look at Over 3.5 or even Over 4.5 Goals instead. Available at [1.99] and [3.3] respectively, these two selections ought to give you a run for your money on what's certain to be an exciting night at Camp Nou.


Half Time/Full Time

Barcelona are odds-against ([2.18]) to be leading at half-time and full-time. That's an appealing price given that the hosts are likely to come out of the traps fast and will surely play better than they did at Parc des Princes three weeks ago.

Expect a bullish start from the hosts, who will look to get the early goal that would set PSG hearts beating faster. With Lionel Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez all available and expected to start there's every chance Barcelona will lead at half-time and win on the night, even if overturning the 4-0 first leg deficit proves beyond them.


Asian handicap

If, like us, you suspect Barcelona will win on the night but are not tempted by the [1.47] odds on a home win in 90 minutes, the Asian handicap could be the way to play.

Barcelona are available at around evens with a -1.&-1.5 start. That means you'll lose only half your stakes if Barcelona win by a single goal and will make a profit if the hosts win by two goals or more. On a night when Barcelona have no choice but to play on the front foot this is a tempting selection.

For a full guide to Asian handicap betting, click here.


Recommended Bets

Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [1.99]
Back Barcelona Half Time/Full Time @ [2.18]


James' 2016/17 Champions League P/L

Staked: 10pts
Returned: 20.14pts
P/L: +10.14pts (101% ROI)

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