Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain: Back goals in a near 3/1 Bet Builder

• Barcelona protecting a lead at home

• Xavi and Mbappé aiming for dream farewells

• Read about Betfair's 90 minute payout offer here

Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain
Tuesday, 20:00
TNT Sports 1

Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain will meet on Tuesday with a Champions League semi-final place at stake, and it's the Catalan club with the upper hand.

PSG might have been favourites to win the first leg at the Parc des Princes, but Barça stunned their former manager Luis Enrique thanks to a winner from Andreas Christensen 13 minutes from time. Raphinha scored twice, either side of PSG goals from Ousmane Dembélé and Vitinha, leaving Les Parisiens needing to do what no opponent has done in the Champions League this term and win at Lluis Companys.

After enjoying a weekend off in the lead-up to the first leg, Barcelona warmed up for the second game with a narrow win against Cádiz. Instead it was PSG who enjoyed a weekend off, allowing Luis Enrique to work for longer on his plans for his return to Catalunya.

Mbappé's last chance

When Kylian Mbappé joined Paris Saint-Germain from Monaco in 2017, he did so off the back of a starring role in a shock run to the semi-finals. His arrival in the capital was expected to help provide that elusive European title, but the 2020 final defeat was one of just two runs to the final four with the France forward at the club.

The Bondy-born star arrived in a move which many hoped would help erase the painful memory of Barcelona's remontada in the 2016-17 edition of the competition. That was one of five previous editions of the tournaments to feature a PSG-Barcelona clash (it happened in the group stages and quarter-finals in 2014-15) with the Catalans edging the aggregate score 26-23 so far.

If Mbappé can't inspire a turnaround, he'll almost certainly leave this summer with plenty of domestic achievements but one notable gap. He underwhelmed in the first leg, but a goal on Tuesday night would see him draw back level with Harry Kane at the top of the goal charts following the Bayern Munich striker's penalty at Arsenal.

In order to secure a fairytale farewell before football's worst-kept-secret of a summer move to Real Madrid, Mbappé may have to lead by example. He's 1/12.00 to score at any time or 7/24.50 to get the first goal of the night.

Goals tend to flow

The 13 Champions League games between these sides have produced 49 combined goals, an average of 3.77 per match. What's more, there have been only two instances of a team keeping a clean sheet in the tie.

One of those was in the 2014-15 quarters, a 2-0 Barça win that helped them continue their march to eventual glory. The other came in PSG's 4-0 first-leg win in the last 16 in 2016-17, with their rivals responding with a memorable 6-1 triumph at Camp Nou.

Barcelona have impressed defensively this term, especially in front of their own fans, but a March draw at Monaco was the only time in 2024 where PSG have drawn a blank. Both teams to score can be backed at 4/91.44, while more than 1.5 first-half goals - on track for that 3.77 average - is available at 6/52.20.

Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain prediction

And so, it all comes down to whether Luis Enrique can get the best out of his team and ensure Mbappé's quest for one final trophy continues. Back in 2017, it was Neymar who inspired Barcelona's comeback before moving to Paris, and now it's time for his long-term team-mate to do the same.

The issue, of course, is that Mbappé isn't the only one after a fond farewell. Barcelona boss Xavi announced he will be off in the summer, and he's been getting the best out of his side of late.

We have our eye on the Bet Builder market this week, and it's one where Barça's first-leg advantage could prove critical. Mbappé to score, more than 1.5 first-half goals and Barcelona to qualify can be backed at just over 15/4.

Now read more of our Champions League tips and previews here!

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