UEFA Champions League

Barcelona v Inter: Spanish football expert Jamie Kemp expects Yamal to unpick Inter

Hansi Flick applauds Barcelona crowd
Flick's Barcelona stand before a potentially historic season

Barcelona's semi-final against Inter pits together a ruthless attack and a dominant defence, but Jamie Kemp is expecting there to be action at both ends on Wednesday night...

  • Barcelona are the dominant attacking force in Europe

  • Despite their brilliance, Flick's side do run sizable risks

  • Lamine Yamal will have a crucial role in breaking Inter down

  • Don't forget to read Paul Higham's Build Up tips at the bottom of the preview


Watch Football...Only Bettor Champions League semi-finals special


Barcelona v Inter
Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Live on TNT Sports 1

The View From Barcelona

Barcelona's treble dream is on and, even acknowledging the enormity of the task, belief is growing that this team might just be good enough to do it.

Quite frankly, after another monumental effort on Saturday night to clinch the Copa del Rey and down Real Madrid (again), it is hard to bet against Hansi Flick's side. That's now three wins from three Clasico games this season - and they've won them by an aggregate score of 12-4, demonstrating that not only are the superior footballing outfit, but that they are absolutely fearsome competitors, capable of winning in a multitude of ways.

If there was a scene to sum up Flick's Barcelona, the winning goal on the night is a decent candidate. It came from defender Jules Koundé - playing in his 52nd game of the season - pinching the ball high up in the opposition half in the 116th minute, despite being well past the stage where cramps and fatigue are supposed to set in. Barça have shown us their football and their attacking flair, but it is always underlined by complete conviction in their front-foot style and commitment to Flick's vision.

That makes them a scary team. At times, however, it can make them quite a scary team for Barcelona fans to watch. One only need go back and look at the second leg of their quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund to see what a uniquely bold team they are under Flick. There is simply nothing conservative about them, even when the game calls for it. And in knockout stage football in Europe, things can always unravel at speed.

By the time this tie is done, I expect Barcelona to be the ones with their place in the final. But I do think there will be some hairy moments for them along the way, up against a savvy Inter team who know there will be chances for them to find attacking joy if they can execute well - be it on slick transitions, crosses from wide, or finding runners into the space Barcelona will leave behind their defensive line.

Though the Copa winners are the best attacking team in Europe (scoring 155 goals in 53 games this season), and capable of blowing anyone away on their day, I do think we'll see a team as well-drilled as Inter find their moments to hit back here - as they did with a likely similar pattern of play as we saw in the previous round against Bayern Munich. Inzaghi's team landed 10 shots on target across both legs against the Germans.

Flick's Barça are a sensational team, but even when they are, their goalkeeper usually has work to do. Wojciech Szczesny has had to make 5+ saves in three of his last four appearances, and averages 2.3 saves per 90 across the season overall.

Ultimately, I'll take the knockout artists Barcelona to win in front of their own fans in the first leg, in a game where both will have their moments, but where the Catalans have the attacking stardust to separate themselves on the scoreboard.

Lamine Yamal won't be fazed by big European stage

 

Saturday night was further confirmation of two things on the Lamine Yamal front. One, that he's remarkably unbothered by pressure and the big stage. And two: his ability is already determining against any opponent or occasion that might await him. With all the success he's had at such a young age, that growing coolness under the spotlight is frightening for Barcelona's competitors.

At this stage, the only thing that looks likely to stop - or at least halt - Yamal's performance levels is his physical condition. Nobody outside of Barcelona can know for sure what the case is on that front, but a 17-year-old playing this much at the elite level and being this important to his team is basically unprecedented. At the same time, being this close to a potential treble might well just provide the fuel that he and Barcelona need to navigate what remains of their season.

Either way, I expect Yamal is going to be as crucial as ever for Barcelona on Wednesday night - and perhaps even more so than usual.

The particularity of Inter as an opponent, namely in that they're an ultra-experienced side who are capable of progressing from this tie even if Barcelona dominate the ball, means that unpicking their defensive block is likely to be the Catalan side's big challenge. If Inter fall into an open, end-to-end affair, this vibrant Barça side will hit way harder than Inter themselves can. Simone Inzaghi will know that as well as anyone.

Especially with Robert Lewandowski missing, Inter will be keenly aware of limiting space for Barcelona to run in behind through the likes of Raphinha and Ferran Torres. The visitors need to defend with numbers and keep Barcelona's attackers in front of them as much as possible, which is usually when Yamal appears as the solution to try and open things up with a shot, pass, or dribble.

While he's coming off a pair of assists in the Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid, I'm going to stick with the teenager to be decisive in the final third here. Barcelona will need his craft to pick through Inter's stout defence, and his form is right where it needs to be for that.

Overall, I'll take him to score or assist on the night, along with winning 2+ fouls. Yamal has either scored himself or set up a teammate in each of his last four UEFA Champions League starts on home soil (three goals, two assists), and should they dominate the ball in this one, he's going to attract a heck of a lot of attention from defenders.

Across the season, Yamal has averaged 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 when starting in home matches. In the first leg of a European semi-final first leg, against a classically dogged Italian side, I'd expect him to tip the scale on two by the time he's done.


Now read our other Champions League tips here!


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Paul Higham's Build Up Tips:

Player to have more shots on target

Inter's Lautaro Martinez is a man to back against Barcelona as he's in superb form having scored in his last five Champions League games, but we'll not go so far as tou back him to bag another.

Instead we'll take Martinez to win a Shots On Target Match Ups bet against Barcelona's Ferran Torres, who will be starting up front in place of the injured Robert Lewandowski.

We get 17/102.70 on Martinez to win this one, with 11 shots on target in those last five goalscoring outings going up against Torres with just one Champions League start this season.

Even with home advantage I'd rather side with the dangerous Inter man on this one.


Player to commit more fouls

There's not much between Barcelona's Frenkie de Jong and Inter's Alessandro Bastoni as we pit the two against each other in a Fouls Match Up wager, but preference goes to the Italian defender.

He's got 11 fouls to De Jong's 10, but playing away from home is always more difficult for defenders, and given the wealth of attacking talent the home side have he'll be in the firing line a lot more.

Dutch midfielder de Jong can throw his weight around, but he'll likely have less combative work to do so I think conditions are right for Bastoni to win this one.

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