Arsenal v Sporting Lisbon: Saliba v Suarez battle should deliver 10/11 winner in cautious clash

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Arsenal huge favourites to make last four

Arsenal have one foot in the Champions League semi-finals according to the Betfair Exchange. They're trading at 1.061/18 to get the job done after a controlled 1-0 win in Lisbon, leaving Sporting out at 11.010/1 to pull off what would be a sizeable upset.

But if you watched that first leg rather than just scanned the result, you'll know this tie isn't quite as one-sided as the market suggests.

Sporting asked plenty of questions in Portugal. Five saves from David Raya tells its own story. Arsenal were efficient and clinical when it mattered but far from untouchable.

The key question is whether Sporting can be more clinical with the chances they create. They found space between Arsenal's lines last week and weren't shy in pulling the trigger, but Raya stood firm. Replicating that volume of opportunities is one thing, taking one or two of them is another.

Arsenal should progress - they've earned that position with a professional first-leg display. But don't be surprised if Sporting make them work a lot harder for it than the markets predict.

Defences to dominate as under 2.75 goals looks value

Arsenal, with a lead to protect, don't need to chase the game. That could lead to a slightly more measured tempo, particularly in the first half. They'll look to control possession, limit transitions and gradually squeeze Sporting out of the tie.

Trying to get into the mind of a manager from a strategic point of view is a key thing to utilise as a bettor on football.

Mikel Arteta is going to play the odds, which are stacked in his team's favour and play to the strengths that got Arsenal to where they are now by being the best defensive team in world football when everything is clicking.

He knows a clean sheet will do the job here and I think he's going to ask his team to play very safe and secure - a similar approach to the Carabao Cup semi-final with Chelsea where Arsenal held a one-goal advantage going into the second leg at home and were very controlled and risk-free in their performance and got the clean sheet.

Arteta is going to back his defence to win the battle against a Sporting attack which does look below the level of what is usually expected of a Champions League quarter-final.

Arsenal have 25 clean sheets in 54 games this season and have only conceding 0.6 goals per game at home.

The Goal Line does look appealing for an under goals play. And by backing the under 2.75 line at 1.910/11, we're basically playing the under 2.5 line but with the insurance of losing only half our stakes if there are exactly three goals.

There needs to be four goals for us to lose and there hasn't been four or more goals in Arsenal's last 10 games where the goal average has been at 2.2.

I think this is just a 'job done' kind of night for Arsenal where they'll be managing the game, slowing it down and basically just trying to get to final whistle in front.

Saliba in firing line to be fouled

Sporting will have to be aggressive again like they were in Lisbon. There's no other route back into this tie. Expect their centre-forward to set the tone, looking to disrupt Arsenal's rhythm and get physical.

That's where one of the standout bets comes into focus.

William Saliba to be fouled at 10/111.91 looks tailor-made for the match-up we're expecting.

Saliba is the cornerstone of Arsenal's build-up play. Everything flows through him when they're playing out from the back. He's calm, composed, and always willing to take that extra touch to draw pressure before releasing the ball.

Sporting's likely focal point up top, Luis Suarez, is exactly the type of striker who thrives on that physical duel. He averages 1.6 fouls per 90 in the Champions League - a number that underlines just how combative his approach is. He'll back into defenders, lean on them and isn't shy about leaving a foot in when trying to unsettle.

That puts Saliba right in the firing line.

Now read more Champions League tips here