World Snooker Daily Tips: Impressive Haotian still looks under-rated

Masters champion Mark Allen
Mark Allen is rated the value pick at this stage

Paul Krishnamurty's daily tips were on fire in the first round with nine winners and two bets still live. We're into the last-16 now and a chance to trade even longer, three session matches. Check out today's bets and a new outright pick...

"Haotian certainly played the better snooker in the first round...The 20 year-old is evidently another Chinese kid with tremendous potential and has really made strides in recent months."

Back Lyu Haotian 4u @ 4.03/1
Place order to lay 8u @ 2.01/1

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An enthralling and highly profitable first round draws to a close today and the last-16 gets under way. I'll post the full stats once our live positions on the Trump and Day matches are settled, but we're guaranteed to be around 30 units in front.

Before getting to the matches, a quick update on the outright market. The betting is firmly centred on Ronnie O'Sullivan and, with Selby out, would be transformed if the Rocket were to go out early. I don't expect that to happen but there is definitely value to be found in the top half of the draw, where nobody needs worry about Ronnie for three more matches.

Allen the value in easier half of the draw

I'm in firm agreement with Ralph Ellis that the standout value right now is Mark Allen at 20.019/1. With a major finally in the bag after his Masters victory, 'Pistol' is ready to impact the sport's premier event and was impressive in his opener.

With Selby and Murphy out, the top half of the draw has opened up, yet Allen is rated only fourth best. I don't think he'd have much to fear from or be a big outsider against any of Trump, Higgins or Wilson - and he's not wholly certain to play any of them. By taking what feel like luxury odds now, we should be able to easily cover if he progresses.

Mark Allen v Joe Perry

That isn't to say Mark is a certainty here. Far from it. His career head-to-head with Perry stands at 4-4, with 'Gentleman Joe' 28-27 ahead in frames. In majors, the scores are 1-1 and 8-8. These best-of-25 matches famously swing back and forth over the three sessions, and I would need to be a lot more confident before backing a 1.625/8 chance from the outset.

This is a match I may well return to in-play, but for now let's just try a trio of correct scores about a narrow Allen win. The scores range from 13-10 to 13-12 - a combination that pays just over 5/2.

Haotian to maintain his brilliant debut

Barry Hawkins v Lyu Haotian

This is a tricky match to price up and that must make the outsider a value trade at 3/1. Haotian certainly played the better snooker in the first round, really impressing with how immediately he coped with the Crucible atmosphere on debut. The 20 year-old is evidently another Chinese kid with tremendous potential and has really made strides in recent months. Critically, he's already developed good matchplay skills.

I'm not overly worried that Hawkins, one of my original four outright picks, laboured a bit against Stuart Carrington. He was in great form beforehand and plenty of seeds start slowly. However he has never been one to rely upon at short odds, because his bad level is very bad, and this opponent is well up to punishing mistakes. The opening plan here is an even money back-to-lay trade on Haotian, placing a lay order to double our money if he shortens to 2.01/1 in running.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

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