The Betfair Contrarian is backing the Saints to topple the Chargers in the NFL's annual Wembley showdown. Here's why...

NFL / The Betfair Contrarian / 22 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

They may be underdogs but that's just how the Contrarian likes 'em. Here are his eight reasons for backing New Orleans in the NFL betting this Sunday...

When the NFL last graced Wembley, a team on a five match winning streak faced one that had lost their last seven, and the contest was remembered more for wrecking the pitch ahead of England's game with Croatia than for the Giants' predictable victory over the Dolphins.

This one should be different though as the New Orlean Saints and San Diego Chargers arrive in London with identical 3-4 records. The Chargers are favourites ([1.61]) while the Saints travel without star running back Reggie Bush but the Contrarian, who less than two months ago prophesised a struggle for the New England Patriots this season, expects the outsiders ([2.42]) to triumph. Here's why...

San Diego don't travel well

The Chargers have played away from the Qualcomm Stadium four times this season and have won just once. Perhaps the most shocking of their three defeats came earlier this month when they lost away to the Miami Dolphins, who had won just two of their last 22 regular season games and have lost their other two home games this season. Officially the Saints are the home team in this game which could be a good omen as they have won three of the four that they have hosted.

The west-to-east curse

There have been ten occasions this season where a team from the west coast has travelled to the east coast for games starting at 10am PST/1pm EST and each time the team from the west have lost. While this is not your typical west-to-east game, the Chargers will have to travel an extra three hours compared to the Saints and while there will be an acclimatisation period for both teams, travelling a shorter distance could still hand the Saints an advantage.

The Saints are better at playing abroad

New Orleans have twice travelled abroad and on both occasions they have been victorious. One of those games was at the old Wembley when they faced the Los Angeles Raiders in an exhibition game in 1990, winning 17-10. San Diego have never previously travelled to London but have lost three of the four exhibition games they have contested outside of the United States.

The Saints total offence is unmatched

The Saints have the best total offence of all 32 NFL teams this season, whereas San Diego rank tenth. Their impressive offence should have plenty of opportunities against the Chargers who have the fifth worst total defence in the league.

The stage is set for Brees to shine

New Orleans' quarterback Drew Brees is responsible for over 75% of his team's offensive yardage and leads the league with an average of 318 passing yards per game. In contrast, the Chargers have the second-worst passing defence in the league.

Shockey should have plenty of opportunities too

In the first four games of the season the Chargers allowed the opposition's tight ends to catch 28 passes for five touchdowns. This is good news for Saints' tight end Jeremy Shockey who racked up 101 yards receiving the last time he met with the Chargers in 2005.

Tomlinson is in decline

Two years ago LaDainian Tomlinson was the top scorer in the NFL and broke the record for the most points scored in a single season, but he has deteriorated rather rapidly since then. In his historic 2006 campaign he averaged 11.63 points a game but that fell to 6.75 in 2007 and has dropped further to 3.43 this season. His touchdown average has also diminished. In 2006 he managed 1.94 a game, in 2007 that fell to 1.13 and so far this year it is 0.57.

The Chargers have been flopping on CBS

This weekend's game is being televised on CBS and on three of the four occasions that San Diego's games have been shown on that network this season they have been defeated. In contrast, the Saints romped to a 34-3 victory over the Oakland Raiders in their only game shown on CBS this year.