NFL Championship Game Betting: New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

NFL / Andy Richmond / 23 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

"This Colts team can score and if they can get up 10-0, the Jets will be in trouble."

Backed up by a formidable defence, the Jets have won well on the road to get this far. Can the boys from the Big Apple keep out Peyton Manning and co. to gain a place in the Super Bowl? Andy Richmond selects the best bets.

Prior to the Week 16 match up between these two teams the chances that they would be meeting in the AFC Championship game were remote. Once the Colts "gifted" the Jets the game by resting most of their starters from the third quarter onwards - a decision which didn't sit well with the majority of the Colts players, supporters or management - the contest became a possibility. To make it happen the Jets have had to win two tough road games at the Bengals and Chargers with their number one ranked defence and running game providing the basis for those victories.

The bedrock for this Jets team is its defence which over the last eight games has only conceded nine points per game, and they'll need to be at their absolute best on Sunday as they face League MVP, Colts QB Peyton Manning. It's safe to say that the Week 16 game has given both teams food for thought and the biggest thought for the Jets will be can they get to Manning this time, in that last game they didn't get to Manning once in 21 pass attempts. If that scenario plays out again here then it will be the Jets who exit one stop before the Superbowl.

The Jets will come into this game with one thing on their minds: control the football. They will want to unleash their top-ranked running game on the Colts, keeping Peyton Manning off the field. They will try and limit the passing attempts by Mark Sanchez to keep him from making mistakes.

But that's a tough strategy to use against a Colts team that can score. If the Colts can get up 10-0, the Jets will be in trouble. The Jets have a great cover player in CB Darrelle Revis, and he will likely be matched up on Colts WR Reggie Wayne, but that won't stop the Colts from attacking him or the rest of the secondary. Manning will take his shots, and hit a few of them. With Revis expected to lock down Reggie Wayne again, Dallas Clark becomes Manning's go-to guy, with Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Joseph Addai adept pass catchers who can and will make big plays.

Jets QB Sanchez has made strides in the play-offs, but asking him to keep up with Manning is dangerous for the Jets. They can't get into a shootout. The other thing to consider here is how well the Colts defence is playing. It shut down a good Baltimore running game last week - the Ravens weren't able to produce more than 87 yards rushing.

This is a great confrontation with two different coaching and playing styles clashing. On the sidelines you have the brash upfront Rex Ryan who has already guaranteed a path to the Superbowl for the Jets, while for the Colts the humble Caldwell stands quietly on the sidelines with his arms folded. The contrast in styles has worked for both teams. On the field - the Colts have the league's worst rushing attack and will throw the ball 70 percent of the time. The Jets want to avoid the passing game as much as possible and will run the ball 70 percent of the time.

If there is a deciding factor it's the experience at quarterback - so it's the Colts, just.

Recommended Bets:

Under 40.5 match points 1 ½ pts at 1.91 or better

First TD Scorer ½ pt on each - Dallas Clark 13.0, Austin Collie 15.0, Pierre Garcon 17.0

Dallas Clark over 66 ½ receiving yards 1 pt at 1.91 or better