NFL / Andy Richmond / 12 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Andy Richmond picks the best bets as the big kick-off gets underway stateside...

"Minnesota should get off to a winning start on the road against Cleveland Browns, giving up 4.5 points – 1pt win at [2.08]."

Minnesota at Cleveland

One man dominates this fixture - whether he should or not is another matter. Brett Favre is that man and after being a Packers icon for many years he turns up at one of their fiercest rivals - the Vikings, via a sojurn at the NY Jets.

However, what Favre does bring is a pass threat down the field and if the Browns defence is up to 2008 standards the Vikings rushing offence led by Adrian Peterson will have a field day as they are now far more balanced than last season.

Cleveland allowed 151 rushing yards per game and a total of 16 rushing TDs last year.

Minnesota, meanwhile, ran for 146 yards per game with 15 total rushing TDs. Peterson has rare speed and running skills. He can see the hole, change directions and hit top speed just like that.

Brady Quinn is likely start at QB and with the Browns likely to struggle with their running game against a strong Vikings defensive line led by Pat and Kevin Williams he doesn't have many viable receiving targets. He will need to make plays downfield to keep the any Browns drives alive and that seems unlikely on this Vikings defence.

I'm sure we'll have the usual high and lows from Favre but the Vikings have too many weapons for this realigned Browns secondary. Peterson to soften them up and Favre to hit them deep.

Recommendation: Minnesota off to a winning start on the road giving up 4.5 points - 1pt win at [2.08].

Washington at NY Giants

Tough and uncompromising sums up this encounter from one of the more competitive divisions of the NFL. There is history between these two with the recent edge held by the Giants who have won 10 of the last 14 games.

I highlighted Redskins Head Coach Jim Zorn as one of the coaches under pressure at the start of this season and he will need his team to step up and deliver here. Defensively, they look much improved especially with the addition of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, a big money signing from the Titans. He will fortify the defence a unit that was fourth in the league in total defence at 288.8 yards per game and sixth with 18.5 points a contest.

Offensively, Washington will again be counting on big seasons from Clinton Portis - fourth in the league last year with 1,487 rushing yards - and Santana Moss, who had 1,044 yards receiving. They may struggle to move the ball here and will need Portis to establish the ground game.

The Giants are now minus Armani Toomer and Plaxico Burress and they will be looking for their young wide receivers to step up and play; he won't start but look out for rookie Hakeem Nicks to play a big role in certain situations.

Both teams will look to establish the run first and foremost and this could lead to some clock eating drives and a low scoring contest could result.

Recommendation: Close, low scoring contest - 1 point under 36.5 match points at 2.04 and 1 point on the Skins +6.5 points at 2.04

Chicago at Green Bay

Quarterbacks are the defining theme here - two of the best young ones in the game. Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Jay Cutler for Chicago.

Rodgers would look to have the better weapons especially in the receiving corps and he has had an excellent pre-season, scoring on nine of the 12 possessions that he played in. His six TD passes were the most in pre-season and he should be able to exploit the weakness in the Bears secondary especially when using his go-to receiver Greg Jennings.

Cutler also had an excellent preseason and has everything you're looking for in a quarter-back -- mobility, arm strength, accuracy and good recognition. What he may be lacking at the moment is a primary receiver such as Jennings, and he may be forced into a more conservative game here as he lacks the arsenal to go deep as Rodgers can.

Defensively the Packers have been remodelled this year and should be able to put much more pressure on the passer - as they convert to a 3-4 scheme - and that could give Jay Cutler a lot to handle here.

The winner of this battle will have a leg up in the NFC North. I would expect to see Packers fans try to disrupt Cutler, who has a reputation for being a hothead. The calmer more consistent Rodgers should win this opening salvo in the NFC North.

Recommendation: Worth a late night this one - close but Green Bay can give up 3.5 points, 1 point win at [2.02].

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