Handicappers' Corner: A hiccup for Nicholls?

Timeform Debate / Phil Turner / 21 February 2012 / 2 Comments

It was largely a weekend to forget for the champion trainer

"On a positive note, that sole winner was Zarkandar (Timeform rating h158p), who maintained his 100% record over hurdles with a winning reappearance in the very valuable Betfair Hurdle..."

Dealing with an irritating cough can be a tricky business, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner has plenty of sympathy for champion trainer Paul Nicholls at present.

Even a trip to the chemist can be fraught with hazards, as American comic Jerry Seinfeld once bemoaned his dilemma in choosing between two bottles of cough mixtures billed as quick-acting or long-lasting - "when do I want to feel better, now or later?!?"

Nicholls would presumably plump for both bottles to ensure the outbreak of coughing which has hit his yard in recent days will be long gone by Tuesday March 13, the opening day of this year's Cheltenham Festival. In truth, "outbreak" may be overselling the problem - Nicholls has reported he has "several horses coughing" - but a haul of just one win from thirty-one runners on Friday, Saturday and Sunday is clearly a worrying sign given the yard's very high standards.

On a positive note, that sole winner was Zarkandar (Timeform rating h158p), who maintained his 100% record over hurdles with a winning reappearance in the very valuable Betfair Hurdle at Newbury's rearranged card on Friday. Although the bare form of that win still leaves him with plenty to find in regard to reigning champion Hurricane Fly (h174), Zarkandar remains open to further improvement and again displayed a very pleasing attitude at Newbury, particularly as he was arguably left with a bit too much to do in what was a messy race.

Indeed, Zarkandar seems set to head a four-strong team for Nicholls in the Champion Hurdle, which is reportedly the trainer's "most-wanted race" missing from his CV. His other Champion Hurdle hopefuls at this stage are Rock On Ruby (h165), Celestial Halo (h163) and Brampour (h159), the last-named gelding having shaped much better than the result suggests when a never-nearer seventh behind Zarkandar on Friday. Significantly, however, stable jockey Ruby Walsh is due to stay loyal to Hurricane Fly.

Celestial Halo, of course, came closest to providing Nicholls with that elusive first Champion Hurdle win when beaten just a neck in the 2009 renewal, but it seems most unlikely he'll be going one better come March 13 on the evidence of his comprehensive defeat by 2010 hero Binocular (h167) in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday. Binocular, on the other hand, has re-emerged as a live contender and arguably now makes more appeal than stable-companion Grandouet (h165), who was replaced by Binocular at Wincanton due to a late setback.

That minor blip with Grandouet has been a rare bit of bad news for Nicky Henderson as, in contrast to Nicholls, his team has been in rude health during February, with Binocular just one of several big-race winners for the yard at Newbury, Ascot and Wincanton on Friday and Saturday.

Henderson saddled a one-two in both the Betfair Denman Chase and the Betfair Super Saturday Chase (Game Spirit) at Newbury on Friday, thanks to Long Run (c182) and Burton Port (c166) in the former, plus Sprinter Sacre (c160p) and French Opera (c156) in the latter. It was a satisfactory return to winning ways for Long Run, particularly as he was conceding 10 lb to Burton Port, though the latter also emerged with plenty to credit on his return from a lengthy absence and must firmly enter the Grand National picture now.

Sprinter Sacre has long since headed the ante-post betting for the Arkle and he cemented his position as favourite with another breath-taking display in the Game Spirit, though the Nicholls-trained Al Ferof still heads (just!) the Timeform novice chaser ratings on c161.

Henderson's other main Cheltenham Festival novice chasing hope Bobs Worth (c152p) had to settle for second behind the Alan King-trained Invictus (c146p) in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot on Saturday, though connections were reportedly thrilled with the gelding's performance after a rushed preparation (had undergone breathing surgery since last seen on Boxing Day). Bobs Worth remains a top-class prospect, though his jumping will need to be more polished than on his last two starts if he's to fulfil his undoubted potential.

Roles were reversed in Ascot's main race on Saturday, with Henderson's Riverside Theatre (c171) proving too strong for the King-trained Medermit (c168) in the Betfair Ascot Chase. Riverside Theatre hadn't been seen since winning the 2011 renewal of the same race and looks every bit as good as ever judging by Saturday's convincing display - indeed, he appeals as one of the standout Cheltenham Festival bets at present given his current odds in the Ryanair Chase market.

Comments (2)

1. Anonymous | 22 February 2012

   You seem to be rating the Reynoldstown through "marker" horse Alfie Spinner and in doing so have (imo) under-rated the form by about 10 pound. Would be nice to be backing Invictus off a mark of 146 in a handicap.

2. Phil Turner | 02 March 2012

   The Reynoldstown could clearly be rated a bit higher but, given the proximity of Alfie Spinner and late faller Baile Anrai, we felt a more conservative view was the best approach. In addition, I'm fairly confident that neither Bob's Worth (jumping errors) nor Silviniaco Conti (yard under a cloud that weekend) ran to their best on this day. That's a judgement call and, of course, subsequent events could prove us to be wrong! Invictus is still a horse we've got a lot of time for (hence the "p") and will be well worth his place in one of the Cheltenham novices.....