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UEFA Cup

UEFA Cup Betting: Everton v Fiorentina

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A night for bold moves from Moyes says Alsy but Fiorentina's finesse will be too much for the Toffees...

England's 'Big Four' have performed well in the Champions League but as they make waves at Europe's top table, it's anything but smooth sailing for their compatriots in the UEFA Cup. In first-leg matches, Tottenham lost 1-0 at home to PSV; Bolton conceded an away goal in drawing 1-1 to Sporting while Everton travelled to Italy and endured a ninety-minute nightmare in Fiorentina's Artemio Franchi stadium.

Everton failed to retain the ball, support lone striker Yakubu or create anything of note before losing 2-0. Outplayed by a talented Fiorentina side it was difficult to believe that the Merseysiders had won their past seven UEFA Cup games and on reflection they should be grateful that they only conceded two goals to Kuzmanović and Montolivo.

Cesare Prandelli's side controlled that game but even if Everton fail to progress after Wednesday's second-leg, David Moyes will expect his side to demonstrate that they can actually compete at this level. Last Tuesday a superhuman performance from Tim Howard ensured that the deficit was not even higher but Everton will need more key outfield players to respond in kind. The task is brutally simple: Everton need at least two goals and a clean sheet against a team who have only lost once against English opposition.

Fiorentina will be full of confidence having gained an important psychological advantage last week. They have huge experience up front in the shape of Christian Vieri but Everton should be more concerned if Adrian Mutu is passed fit. Sharper and more mobile than the aging Italian, Mutu has been on fire, scoring fourteen goals so far this season but at the moment it looks as if Osvaldo is likely to start.

Coach Prandelli will ensure his team defends deep and in numbers but when Fiorentina break Everton must be wary of those impressive, goal-scoring midfielders Kuzmanovic and Montolivo. Phil Neville will also have to do better against rampaging left-back Pasqual but my worry is that, in pushing forward they must score early in the game otherwise this Everton team will concede.

The omens for Everton do not look promising to me. Moyes' success has been built on a solid defensive mindset but Everton are less potent in attack against the top tier of football teams. Currently fourth in Serie A Fiorentina proved last week that they have genuine quality and that's reflected in their price to win the Uefa Cup at [9.0] compared to Everton at [23.0].

Watching Everton's recent Carling Cup match at Stamford Bridge, the away side lost 2-1 against Chelsea's ten men. For the first time in the match the Chelsea juggernaut looked completely vulnerable, but Moyes still played safe with his substitutions sticking with one ineffective striker when the win was clearly up for grabs. Moyes got the midfield stalemate he was seeking until Wright-Phillips forced a Lescott own-goal on ninety minutes to win the match. Too cautious, the window of opportunity had dissolved and Chelsea won the return leg 1-0.

Moyes will know that conceding a goal will give his team the proverbial mountain to climb but he also needs to end a goal drought against Italian opposition (that has lasted 450 minutes to date). I predict that the fear of conceding will win the day. Moyes will start with Yakubu as a lone striker with support from Arteta, Pienaar and Cahill pushing on in a five-man midfield.
Everton's chances of progressing should not be dismissed out of hand despite the quality of the opposition, but I would prefer to see Moyes play with two strikers, preferably the physical Anichebe to challenge Fiorentina's height advantage in defence. This is a night for bold moves!

You can back Everton to the match at [1.96] while Fiorentina's price to win is a tempting [4.8]. Personally I'd back Fiorentina's quality to hold sway and would have the draw at [3.5] or back a 1-1 correct score at [7.2].