Who will win the World Cup?
Reigning Euro winners. Unbeaten in 29. Twenty-one goals scored in qualifying. Yamal the magician. Pedri in the middle. Their pedigree and supremacy. There are numerous reasons to back La Roja this summer while you have to scramble about to find negatives.
This will be a squad game at this World Cup given the conditions, and you'll need to control matches, be pragmatic, win those big moments and excel at the nuances of tournament football. Step forward Portugal, with a loaded squad, especially in midfield, filled with guile, technical ability and experience. Playing for the memory of Diogo Jota will also inspire them.
It's tough to work out who will have the tools to go all the way this year, but Spain have a mix of experience and star quality. Their toughest obstacle could be France in the semi-finals, but they should be able to take advantage of Les Bleus ' flimsy back-line.
Didier Deschamps has taken Les Bleus to three major finals. While they only won one of them - the 2018 World Cup final - the other two showpieces were lost by narrow margins. France have an incredible surfeit of attacking talent. Kylian Mbappe already has 12 World Cup finals goals to his name, Ousmane Dembele currently holds the Ballon d'Or and Michael Olise has become arguably the Bundesliga's best player.
Spain are second in FIFA's rankings, they went through qualification unbeaten and won the 2024 Euros. I really cannot look past joint 9/25.50 favourites.
With the Spanish and French on a path to play each other before the final, I'll look to the other side of the draw. Brazil won the last World Cup in the United States in 1994 and come in under the radar which usually helps this football-obsessed nation. Add in the idea of Carlo Ancelotti sprinkling some magic and the 8/1 in a World Cup outside of Europe is a bet worth having.
Which team will be the World Cup dark horse and how do we back them?
A lot hinges on USA beating Turkey in their final group game but if they navigate that a deep run feels possible. USNT will feasibly face Belgium in the last 16 who remain decent, but are not the team they were. In Folarin Balogun they have goals. In Pulisic they have inspiration. Their midfield is strong and manager is terrific. It never hurts to back the host nation either.
Goals will always give you a chance and Norway are filled with them. Obviously Erling Haaland is the main man but don't sleep on Alexander Sorlorth or young Antonio Nusa either. Martin Odegaard can pull the strings for the top scorers in European qualifying with 37 goals and even in a tough group involving France, Senegal and Iraq they should get through comfortably - I've got them finishing second.
Senegal could be the standout African nation at this tournament. They've got an array of talent including Sadio Mane, Pape Sarr and Iliman NDiaye. They have an experienced core and a smattering of youth, and there may be a sense of injustice following the controversy of AFCON. This could act as motivation.
Bosnia & Herzegovina knocked out Italy to reach this tournament, and they have a chance to make a real impact. They can come through their group (they'll face Switzerland, Canada and Qatar) and if they win it they'll get a third-placed team in the last 32. If they finish second, they'll be up against the runners-up from Group A, which is a pretty weak section.
I've probably just been charmed by Bielsa-ball but the South American's swashbuckling style could take the competition by storm this summer.
Senegal should have some World Cup swagger having reached the last eight on their tournament debut in 2002. And who knows what they could have achieved in 2018 (eliminated on fair play points after finishing joint-second in the group)? They return as Africa's strongest-looking side and, the team that brushed aside England 3-1 in a friendly at the City Ground last June, aren't short of goalscorers.
Give us a Player to Watch at the World Cup and a bet to accompany
If we're focusing on pure value then backing the Real Madrid winger to come good jumps out. The 25-year-old bagged his second highest La Liga tally last term and Carlo Ancelotti knows how to get the very best out of him. Crucially too, Brazil are strongly fancied to go deep so he should get seven games minimum to make his mark.
If I'm backing Portugal to win it all then I'll go with their midfield fulcrum Vitinha to be voted player of the tournament. Six of the last 11 winners have been midfielders, and fresh off his Man of the Match display in the Champions League final he's fresh in the mind of the voters. There's flashier players around him but everything goes though him in this Portugal side.
Widely considered one of the most exciting talents in Europe, Norway's Nusa has all of the attributes to shine on the world stage. He has explosive pace and has been racking up the assists for his country.
The 19-year-old Leipzig winger has been a sensation this season, and there's a good reason why Liverpool are keen to sign him, and why Leipzig won't let him go for less than 100 million euros. He is the second-youngest player ever to score a Bundesliga hat-trick, he has pace, skill, defensive work-rate and he has the ability to dominate from either flank.
Cut from the same cloth as Andres Iniesta and Xavi, Pedri's La Roja's heartbeat. A Spanish midfielder has won this accolade in each of their last three Euro triumphs.
Liverpool best make their move for Yan Diomande sooner rather than later as the Ivory Coast youngster's already eyewatering transfer fee could rocket further with a big World Cup. The RB Leipzig winger already has three goals in nine appearances for his country and can take the opportunity to run amok against Curacao and ruffle Germany's feathers in the group stage.
How far will England go?
Brazil potentially await in the quarters, who England have only bested once in their last 12 meetings. A repeat of 2002, when Seleção defeated the Three Lions at this stage of the competition, would not hugely surprise.
England could be decent under Tuchel and they're better than a last-16 exit would suggest. But the travel, the weather and the fixtures just don't stack up for me. Just looking at their possible last-16 fixtures - likely facing Spain is a tough punishment for finishing second in the group, but let's not gloss over playing Mexico at home in a packed-out Azteca. It's tough to imagine England coming through that one.
England's schedule is far from straightforward. Not necessarily in terms of opponent, but in terms of climate and altitude. The potential of facing Mexico at the Azteca and Brazil in Miami may just prove too taxing for the Three Lions.
I rate Thomas Tuchel highly as a coach, and his single-mindedness and attention to detail should take the Three Lions a long way. I just wonder whether the conditions will take their toll, and although I can see England winning a last-16 game against Mexico at the Azteca and even a quarter-final against Brazil in Miami, that might soften them up for a battle-hardened Argentina in the semis.
It might be heart over head but adding an elite manager to this Three Lions squad could be the final piece of the puzzle. How they adapt to the heat is the big question.
If form pans out, England's path is tough and they would be set to run into Brazil in the last eight. England don't beat Brazil at World Cups and here the heat and history could be too much of a double whammy.
Finally what is your World Cup NAP bet?
There's a few groups which on the face of things look pretty simple to guess the finishing order, Group G may not have a few wrinkles in but at a decent price we surely all fancy Belgium to finish top, New Zealand bottom, and Mo Salah's Egypt should have enough to pip Iran.
The Swiss are the standout side in this group and shouldn't find things too tricky alongside Canada, Bosnia and Qatar. The latter do not have home advantage this time around, and their star players aren't getting any younger. They don't have enough firepower in their XI.
Even at the age of 35, Fulham striker Jimenez remains Mexico's spearhead, and he can make hay in a limited group. South Africa, Czechia and South Korea are all beatable opponents, especially in the high altitude of Mexico. With Santiago Gimenez having had a dreadful domestic season with Milan, Jiminez should be an undisputed starter.
Four assists in qualification, 20 in the Premier League since signing for Arsenal and England's set piece taker. Three should be enough for some place money.
Marcus Rashford is 4/91.44 to get the nod down the left, but for his endeavour alone Gordon feels like a logical Tuchel pick for the tournament opener.
Both have excellent scoring rates for their countries but benefit due to having fairly low profiles. Lamine Yamal and Alexander Isak would be much shorter prices if they boasted similar numbers.