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UEFA Cup

UEFA Cup Betting: Bolton will struggle in Lisbon

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Andrew French tells us why he fully expects Sporting to progress to the next round, and gives us a number of selections to tempt you...

While it has been a pleasing and positive distraction from Premiership matters, you have to wonder how much longer Bolton can juggle progressing in the UEFA Cup with staying in the top flight.

Last week's 1-1 draw with Sporting at the Reebok leaves them with a sporting chance of progressing to the quarter-finals of the European competition, but they are also in the Premiership relegation zone and have only taken five points from their last seven league games.

With Birmingham (unbeaten in four) starting to show signs of pulling clear, Bolton cannot rely on those around them, even if Fulham and particularly Derby look detached.

Gary Megson's foremost task has to be keeping the club up, so while beating the likes of Athletico Madrid and Red Star Belgrade is good for morale, it doesn't put food on the table, so to speak.

However, the fact they didn't see off Sporting in the home leg may well end their European experience anyway. The Portugese club are a totally different proposition at home than they are away: in the league this season they have not lost on their own turf, but have only triumphed twice on the road.

It may well be a blessing in disguise for Megson's men if they were to bow out gracefully now, and I think the [1.72] available to back Sporting is the best option in the Match Odds. Bolton can be backed at [6.0], with the draw priced at [3.7].

It's hard to imagine Bolton being able to win the game but if you think they could scramble a draw - even a goalless one which would mean they go out - then the [3.7] to back isn't a bad price.

One thing Bolton have done well in Europe this season is shut out the opposition. Only once have they conceded more than a goal in any tie, and that was in the Allianz Arena against the might Bayern Munich - and even then they claimed an impressive 2-2 draw.

However, the difference this time is that they have to score a goal. In the last round they were happy to take a 0-0 away to Athletico Madrid as the 1-0 win from the first leg took them through.

This time around, Sporting have an away goal, and so if Bolton don't score, Sporting don't need to either. That means Wanderers have to go forward, and that is bound to leave gaps at the back. Therefore, backing no Bolton clean sheet at [1.22] is well worth considering.

It's hard to look beyond a Sporting victory, particularly given their strength at home. They beat runaway Portugese league leaders Porto 2-0 at the Estadio Jose Alvalade and brushed aside Dynamo Kiev 3-0 in the Champions League group stage.

Bolton will work hard and dig in, but backing Sporting to win 1-0 and 2-0 at [6.4] and [8] respectively are both sensible options.

I could certainly see Bolton holding out for 45 minutes, and so backing Draw/Sporting at [4.8] in the Half-Time/Full-Time market would also be worth adding to your bets in this one.