Man United v Ajax: Red Devils to confirm last-16 spot with a win

Europa League / Michael Lintorn / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Sir Alex Ferguson has insisted that he wants to win the Europa League

"Manchester United have followed their last six away first-leg triumphs in continental competitions with further success at home."

Michael Lintorn can't see any way back for Ajax, and expects Manchester United to claim another fairly comfortable victory over the Dutch champions...

Manchester United v Ajax, Thursday 20:05, Five, Match odds: Manchester United [1.38], Ajax [10.0], The Draw [5.0]

The Manchester United starting line up might not be quite as strong, given that this second leg comes three days shy of a Premier League trip to Norwich, rather than on the brink of a free weekend as with the first, but the outcome should be the same.

The 2-0 victory achieved at the Amsterdam ArenA last week, and the fact that the likes of David de Gea, Rio Ferdinand, Nani and Wayne Rooney started there, supported Sir Alex Ferguson's claim that "it is a tournament we will try and win".

There is a school of thought is that Manchester United are worth laying in this return fixture due to the perceived danger in trusting a team who don't actually need to win, however the stats suggest that they will justify odds of [1.38].

Complacency and settling for a draw aren't exactly Red Devils staples, as is proven by them following their last six away first-leg triumphs in continental competitions with further success at home. Roma, AC Milan and Chelsea are among the clubs that they have achieved such doubles against.

A bizarre weekend in the Eredivisie also threatens to play into the hosts' hands, as pacesetters PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar both lost 3-0, suddenly ushering Ajax back into the title race.

With four of the five sides above Frank de Boer's men colliding on Sunday, they will be desperate to claim three points at Excelsior to take full advantage and, with their chances of progressing from this tie rated miniscule at [34.0], there will surely be a temptation to field a weakened team.

Ajax have lost two of their last three away second legs in Europe that have followed home reverses, including in last season's Europa League, when after being beaten 1-0 by Spartak Moscow in the Dutch capital, they surrendered 3-0 in Russia.

Over/under 2.5 goals

As referenced before the opening encounter, despite having no trouble finding the net in domestic action, Ajax can't be relied upon to score in Europe, and the same is true here, even more so in fact as the Dutch champions have fired blanks in three of their last four continental away games.

If you follow that theory, your verdict on this market will be based on whether or not you think Manchester United can get three goals. This writer isn't confident enough, as they have done so just once in seven European matches this term, and Ajax have only leaked that severely for Real Madrid.

Under 2.5 goals is therefore the pick again at even bigger odds than last week of [2.28].

Manchester United clean sheet

This was another recommendation that produced a profit in the first leg that appears worth staying loyal to, as Dinamo Zagreb remain the only of Ajax's four European opponents this season that they have scored against across a combined seven games.

Manchester United have shut out three of the last five visitors to Old Trafford, so with Ferguson eager to see an improvement on the home form that he deemed costly in the Champions League, [2.04] on them keeping a clean sheet appeals.

Other bets to consider include the win to nil at [2.28] and the 2-0 home win at [6.8].

Best Bet: Manchester United to keep a clean sheet @ [2.04]
Other Recommended Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.28]